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TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. LISA
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER.
LISA IS MOVING 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD THEN REACH THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE
REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BY 96 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 30.9N 45.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 32.5N 46.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 47.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 36.0N 47.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 45 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
She still has a little window to become the 8th hurricane of the season.