Latest ENSO forecast=No strong el nino in rest of 2004

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There were some atempts for el nino to show his head in the late summer period but never ENSO has been on the line of being a true el nino as the data does not show sufficient warming of el nino 3-4 regions however maybe a very weak el nino may appear by the next few months.

Read both links above and you will see all the data that shows a no strong to moderate el nino in the pacific at this time.What will 2005 bring for ENSO well we may have to wait until next year to see how ENSO does.

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

The Australian criteria for El Niño is stricter than the U.S. definition, hence there is a difference in opinion between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CDC. The Australians use a > +0.8°C threshold.

A September 9, 2004 CDC assessment stated, in part:

The NOAA operational definition for El Niño [Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a three-month running mean of the Niño 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with a value of +0.7°C. Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005.

The 3-month running average anomaly for Region 3.4 is:
August: +0.57°C (meets NOAA El Niño criteria)
September: +0.75°C* (meets NOAA El Niño criteria)

*-denotes an estimate based on to-date September data.

However, the CDC conceded that a basin-wide El Niño had not yet developed. Finally, there have been El Niño episodes where Region 1+2 retained a cool anomaly. Winter 1958-59 is one such example.

[weatherlover427]

This is impossible. Don Sutherland is correct.

Proof: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm

[donsutherland1]

Joshua21Young,

I just looked at the Australian BOM definition. The CDC and BOM use differing definitions. Hence, some of the weak El Niños shown on CDC records would be described as Neutral ENSO conditions by the Australians.

[weatherlover427]

I sure hope the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) isn't in charge of climate prediction.

BTW Don, you may call me Josh or Joshua. I am not in favor of my current username any more...

[Brent]

I sure hope the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) isn't in charge of climate prediction.

[donsutherland1]

I will do so, Josh.

[cycloneye]

There are mixed signals about an el nino showing up and by what you haved posted Don more confusion grows about this with the Australian version.

[Matthew5]

Wow the "CDC" has taken over the Noaa...That is news to me

[WeatherEmperor]

I read all of those links carefully but those temperatures in the Pacific ocean have been that way for a while and have yet to really impact the Atlantic hurricane activity at all. Take a look at the link I have at the end of this post and you will see a +1 C anomoly for much of the central and west pacific but in the extreme east pacific namely off the coast South America you will see a small pool of cooler water. I dont argue the potential for an El Nino to form but I dont see this impacting the hurricane activity in the Atlantic very much.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

[tronbunny]

Well, they(NOAA) see something anomalous out there...
Whether it turns into a major influence, remains to be seen.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/enso/Enso-season-forecast.html

The NOAA operational definition for El Niño [Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a three-month running mean of the Niño 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with a value of +0.7°C. Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005. At this time it is not clear what, if any, impacts this event will have on ocean temperatures in the classical El Niño region (Niño 1+2) along the west coast of South America. CPC will continue to monitor the situation in the tropical Pacific and will provide more detailed information on possible regional impacts due to this event in coming months.

Since this seems to be a weak and contentious issue...
I'll turn me reasearch here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.html

[Stormsfury]

"Officially", we've entered into an El Niño ... albeit, weak and NOT by any means, classic ...

SF

[AussieMark]

I seriously hope we don't get a El-Nino.

parts of the country are still suffering from the last few episodes.

[cycloneye]

I seriously hope we don't get a El-Nino.

parts of the country are still suffering from the last few episodes.

If there is an el nino episode it wont be like the 1982-83 or the 1997-98 strong el ninos.

[AussieMark]

will rain in Australia be cut off if there is a weak one.

Sydney's water supply level is like 50% or something.

[Rainband]

will rain in Australia be cut off if there is a weak one.

Sydney's water supply level is like 50% or something.

I have family in Melbourne-Victoria.