Major cold wx coming to Midwest & Plains this week

[PurdueWx80]

It looks like the wx pattern wants to change just as we flip the maps to October. September has been quite warm in the Midwest, in relation to the cool summer of 2004. As a side note, Indy failed to get to 90 degrees this year, which has never happened in it's recorded wx history. But I digress.

Some of the MOS forecasts are showing lows near 40 over the next several nights here in IN, and in the 30's this weekend as some fresh air makes it's way into the CONUS from Canada/Alaska. While it won't be a record early frost, it is still relatively early for areas this far south to experience frost. The MOS data is biased towards climatology, so in this case it may be too warm - hopefully an early freeze won't damage the late season crops in the area. It'll be so nice to sleep w/ the windows open, as long as the allergies don't get too bad.

Us Midwesterners will have to post some of our lows over the next week, I'm sure there'll be a few records set.

[Miss Mary]

Purdue - I was wondering how long this warm wx would last. What you experience in Indiana, usually makes it's way to Cincinnati. So we pay close attention to ~your~ wx thru-out the year.

I am ready for cooler temps! I'd like a break from using A/C (we have seasonal allergies in the family) and I'd like to finally retire the summer wardrobe.

I am very curious about our winter forecast though. Haven't read a definitive one yet since it's too early. Local Mets don't want to forecast that far off. Have you heard any of them going out on a limb and predicting cold/snow or mild temps/no snow for your region yet?

Mary

[PurdueWx80]

Mary -

My television broke about a year and a half ago, and, being a poor college student, I was unable to fix it at the time. I realized I was better off w/o it so I never had it fixed. Thus, I have no idea what tv mets are saying about this coming winter. I have heard/read from other sources though, that based on current water profiles in the Pacific and Atlantic, and on the high-landfalling hurricane season, that this winter is supposed to be quite cold in the Eastern US, including here in IN and OH. I don't think this is the beginning of our cold winter, but it will be sort of a preview in the coming week. The 06Z GFS was forecasting cold enough upper level temps for SNOW across northern IN and Michigan, but the low level temps will probably be a bit too warm for that. Still, we will all probably see our first frosts of the season if skies clear out over night, especially over the weekend - lows may even get to the mid 30's up here...brrr.

I have my seasonal allergies too, but I just can't resist sleeping with the windows open. It's a tradeoff I probably shouldn't risk, but there is nothing better than curling up under the covers w/ fresh cool air coming in your apt. all night.

[Miss Mary]

Purdue! When our daughter was diagnosed with asthma I began researching it and discovering ways to make it better for her. Cleaning her room well, clearing out stuffed animals, anything that could collect dust. But one thing I read then has stuck with me all these years - do not sleep with the windows open if you have allergies and/or asthma. The two usually go hand in hand. She has allergies to dust, mold, pollen, cats, etc. When you first fall asleep the air isn't so bad for you. But right before dawn, that is the worst time to keep them open. I wish I could remember why now..... Ever since then, I make sure the windows are closed. We of course have opened them at various times and then we all have froggy voices, sore throats in the morning from having the window open. Just thought I'd mention this! I used to joke we needed to rip up her carpet and put down hardwood flooring. But ever since she entered her teens, the asthma has truly been mild. Knock on wood. She's almost outgrown it by now.

Mary

[Gord_on_snow]

Well considering the temps never got above 80F where i was in /england all summer, it has been feeling like an extension of the summer to me the last month here in Columbus...despite the locals saying its getting cooler..feels quite warm to me!

Looks like we could be in for some autumn weather that i am more used too as a Brit though.

Thanks for the updates guys and will watch those temperatures with interest!

[NWIASpotter]

I know forecasted lows for my area looks to be in the mid 30's in the coming days, it is going to be a chilly one!!

[luke42]

Widespread frost and freeze advisories are out for a large portion of the Upper Midwest tonight! Looks like the end of the growing season for a lot of people in the midwest. Sure sign of fall.

[Indystorm]

Expected cold winter here in Midwest....Purdue Wx....?..I thought with the expected upcoming El Nino we would be having milder and drier weather throughout autumn and winter in our neck of the woods.

[NWIASpotter]

It is already very chilly outside here, and with it only being 10 with clear skies I'm thinkin it's going to be cold!!!

[pojo]

The models have been forecasting 850 mb temps ranging around 50*-60* possibly having weekend temps for Green Bay in the mid to upper 50's...possibly just squeaking 60* on Sunday. I'll get another chance to forecast this afternoon and will be able to figure out if the GFS it still going opposite of the ETA model. MESO-ETA, ETA and European are showing advancement of the cold air into the Central plains and Upper Midwest. However, GFS does not forecast for the temperature drop as much as the others do.

[ThunderSnow1]

Indystorm, there is more to el nino then it existing or not, weak el nino's are nothin like moderate to major el nino's. The News says "El Nino" OMG it's gonna be warm winter ext, when thats not neccessarily true, they don't bother to look at the strength of the el nino, just the hype.

[PurdueWx80]

Yes, exactly, and El Nino isn't the only thing that controls what kind of winter we have here. There are about a million other oscillations that work together to affect weather patterns in the Midwest...and the rest of the world. From what I've seen so far, it is expected to be a cold and snowy winter in this neck of the woods...more so than usual anyway.

[NWIASpotter]

Low only got down to 39 here...ONLY There are forecasted lows of 33 here for saturday night.

[michaelwmoss]

Supposed to be in the mid 40's tonight here south of Indianapolis

[Sean in New Orleans]

We are expecting low 50's early next week for the Northern suburbs of New Orleans---around 62F in the City.

[NWIASpotter]

GFS puts us down to 28 degrees on Friday night as of 18z run...CHILLY!!!

[PurdueWx80]

00Z Eta has upper 20's ALL over the Midwest/Lakes & MS/Ohio Valleys this weekend!!!!!!!!

[frankthetank]

well last night i hit 37.7 just outside La Crosse, WI... tonite should be a little warmer with south winds...

calling for mid to upper 20's if the wind is light this weekend...highs around low 50's...ouch...

[michaelwmoss]

After looking at that map, all I can say is BUURRRRR!

[PurdueWx80]

I'm beginning to wonder how cold it will actually get since the models keep trending LOWER. Here are some selected 00Z GFS MOS forecasts through day 7...temps are min and max for the day.

Lafayette, IN (where I am):

Code: Select all

KLAF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2004  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
THU  30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07 CLIMO
X/N  76| 49  77| 46  62| 35  66| 43  63| 34  59| 36  62| 38  68 47 69

Chicago, IL:

Code: Select all

KLOT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2004  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
THU  30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07 CLIMO
X/N  79| 51  78| 45  65| 40  66| 44  60| 37  55| 36  61| 41  72999999

Ames, IA:

Code: Select all

KAMW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2004  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
THU  30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07 CLIMO
X/N  75| 56  62| 33  62| 36  69| 37  61| 32  62| 35  68| 44  7399999

Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN:

Code: Select all

KMSP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2004  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
THU  30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07 CLIMO
X/N  70| 56  57| 36  54| 43  58| 38  54| 35  54| 39  61| 47  68 43 6

Cincinnati, OH:

Code: Select all

KCVG   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2004  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
THU  30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07 CLIMO
X/N  73| 52  77| 57  67| 39  68| 45  65| 40  59| 37  63| 43  62 48 70

You get the picture...to find yours, go to http://www.met.tamu.edu/personnel/stude ... rface.html and type in your city code, found at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tg/siteloc.shtml then model data and all model output.