So many Cincinnatians are saying the F. Almanac is predicting a cold, snowy winter for our region for 2004/05. Now I've had the impression seasoned Mets do not put much faith in the F. Almanac's forecasting abilities.
So my questions are:
1. Can we trust the Farmer's Almanac for accurate forecasts?
2. What models or criteria do they use to make their forecasts?
3. Is it true, that they won't reveal their sources?
4. What's the difference between the Farmer's and the Old Farmer's Almanacs? Is one more trustworthy than the other? Or are they both for pure enjoyment, rather than reliability?
Thanks!
Mary
?'s about Farmer's Almanac.....
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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CaptinCrunch
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Farmers Almanac is more guess work based off past years and patterens, but it does have some credability, only because of it's wide range of forecast across the nation.
This is the weather forum for The Old Farmers Almanac
http://www.almanac.com/phorum/list.php?f=3
This is the weather forum for The Old Farmers Almanac
http://www.almanac.com/phorum/list.php?f=3
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Re: ?'s about Farmer's Almanac.....
Miss Mary wrote:So many Cincinnatians are saying the F. Almanac is predicting a cold, snowy winter for our region for 2004/05. Now I've had the impression seasoned Mets do not put much faith in the F. Almanac's forecasting abilities.
So my questions are:
1. Can we trust the Farmer's Almanac for accurate forecasts?
2. What models or criteria do they use to make their forecasts?
3. Is it true, that they won't reveal their sources?
4. What's the difference between the Farmer's and the Old Farmer's Almanacs? Is one more trustworthy than the other? Or are they both for pure enjoyment, rather than reliability?
Thanks!
Mary
1. I wouldnt put all my odd's on them. However i will say that they do have the right idea for this winter in your neck of the woods Miss Mary. They have thier hits and misses. Not only do i believe we will have a snowier/colder winter but so does alot of other seasonal forecasters. And yes i will be putting out a winter outlook again this year with the help of some of the other s2k forecasters for the whole USA.
2. I honestly dont know what they use for thier outlooks.
3. Yep very true.
4. All i know is one has been around alot longer then the other. Cant say if they do do it just for enjoyment or what. I know they have a site as well as a bb devoted to wx. Only reason im even aware of that is because last year someone from thier bb posted here and mentioned that my winter outlook and storm2k had been mentioned in one of thier publications.
Hope this helps some.
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Miss Mary
Seriously, Storm2K mentioned in an Almanac publication? Wow!!! That's great! And you too Harry. I'll eagerly await your winter forecast also.
When I asked what criteria both Almanac's use, I was thinking wooly worms. Which I know some people put a lot of faith into (beaver dams, squirrels stocking up early, etc.). I have noticed squirrels going nuts in my area for weeks now - pun intended. They're very active and they're driving our dog crazy!
Thanks for the responses everyone.
Mary
When I asked what criteria both Almanac's use, I was thinking wooly worms. Which I know some people put a lot of faith into (beaver dams, squirrels stocking up early, etc.). I have noticed squirrels going nuts in my area for weeks now - pun intended. They're very active and they're driving our dog crazy!
Thanks for the responses everyone.
Mary
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Miss Mary:
I know! I can't believe how crazy the animals have been lately! Have you noticed the amount of road-kill lately? It may just be because of the full moon- but our roads are blood red!
The weather people have been calling for colder and colder weather the next few weeks! I got Rich Apuzzo's update and he said that the cold air in Canada just keeps on building up, and a little at a time it drops down to visit. I know that it will probably be cold enough for frost/freeze next week...at my folk's house in eastern Ohio they're calling for lows next week near 28 or so.
I am getting a nervous twitch....a big part of me is thinking that we're in for a wild @ss ride this winter. I truly anticipate snow before halloween this year- atleast if flurries or those pesky sleet pellets!!!
How are the leaves doing down there? Ours are just now coming around but aren't very bright because the lack of rain (which hopefully will reverse before its time for snow).
Jay
I know! I can't believe how crazy the animals have been lately! Have you noticed the amount of road-kill lately? It may just be because of the full moon- but our roads are blood red!
The weather people have been calling for colder and colder weather the next few weeks! I got Rich Apuzzo's update and he said that the cold air in Canada just keeps on building up, and a little at a time it drops down to visit. I know that it will probably be cold enough for frost/freeze next week...at my folk's house in eastern Ohio they're calling for lows next week near 28 or so.
I am getting a nervous twitch....a big part of me is thinking that we're in for a wild @ss ride this winter. I truly anticipate snow before halloween this year- atleast if flurries or those pesky sleet pellets!!!
How are the leaves doing down there? Ours are just now coming around but aren't very bright because the lack of rain (which hopefully will reverse before its time for snow).
Jay
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Miss Mary
Jay - in my area, eastern suburb of Cincinnati, the leaves are just starting to turn. We've had a very wet summer but here of late, very little rainfall. So maybe that's one reason why they're taking their time turning? I don't think trees are in danger of rainfall, yet. If it rains soon. Compared to past summers where we've had little rainfall, I heard we should have good color this year.
Road kill....strange that you mention this. I've noticed an increase down here too. Mostly b/c I'm such an animal lover. The last one made me want to just cry - a female deer (that's a doe?) was lying dead along I-275, in the emergency lane. 2 baby deer were standing not even 20 feet away looking at their mother. My girls and I were so sad to see that sight. Somehow they all got past the fencing in place and near traffic. I would never have put the two together before now until you mentioned (increased roadkill = severe winter).
Mary
Road kill....strange that you mention this. I've noticed an increase down here too. Mostly b/c I'm such an animal lover. The last one made me want to just cry - a female deer (that's a doe?) was lying dead along I-275, in the emergency lane. 2 baby deer were standing not even 20 feet away looking at their mother. My girls and I were so sad to see that sight. Somehow they all got past the fencing in place and near traffic. I would never have put the two together before now until you mentioned (increased roadkill = severe winter).
Mary
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Miss Mary,
The Old Farmer's Almanac (published Dublin, NH) explains that their "secret" forecasting methods are based on sunspots or such... Don't know about the competing Farmer's Almanac, but they, too, probably have some "secret" forecasting methods...
What is interesting/fun is that over time their forecasts seem to be remarkably accurate. Of course, there was an old GP who once told me (he was about 85 at the time) why his predictions of a baby's sex were renowned for accuracy: when parents asked, he would tell them one sex and write down the other. Of course, if he guessed correctly, they never asked to check what he had written down... So perhaps the almanac is something like that.
There has been a copy in my family's houses all my life--every year. I've been reading it since the 1950s or so (when I was a kid). Does anyone rely on it? That depends upon what you mean by "rely." For entertainment? You bet. For planting tips, etc. Yes, I think so. I actually think they not only base forecasts on stuff like sunspots, wooly worms, etc. but also on some "scientific" long-range weather forecasting. and stuff like El Nino, La Nina, etc.
How "accurate" is a long-range forecast? Anyone's long-range forecast? If they predict a mild winter, I won't toss away my snow shovels... On the other hand, if they predict a severe winter and storms at certain times, I may be alerted to pay special attention to weather forecasts during those time periods (especially if I know I will be traveling or something--I will read prediction for my daughter's birthday, for example.)
I think that we all, whether we admit it or not, pay attention to what happens in our environment as well as scientific forecasting. Yes, I do check out the wooly worms. I also "smell" snow, pay attention to thunderheads, etc. If the TV tells me that it won't rain, but it "feels like" rain, I pay attention to my "feeling" as much as to the TV. (We had no rain forecast last night, but it rained buckets for a while. I somehow expected the rain, but it was the "feel like" expectation.
In my childhood there were always some old geezers who were really good at predicting the weather, and they told younger people who listened (many did not want to) what they were "looking at" but certainly since the 1950s, 1960s or so we've gotten away from listening, watching animal behavior, etc.
When you live near the coast, you know bad storms are coming when the seagulls go miles inland and when all the other birds sort of disappear... The gulls tend to have favorite places to hang out during storms and if you see a bunch of seagulls in some parking lot north of the Merrit Parkway in Southern CT, you've got a storm coming... I'm sure there are similar signs in other places.
As for wooly worms (a.k.a. "wooly bears"):
The Farmer's Almanac Wooly Worm information is at:
http://www.almanac.com/preview2000/woollybears.html
Scott-in-VA (S2K member) had more on Wooly Worms on his old site. Scott, have you updated links??
Also, there is this:
Woolly Worm Festival
Mountain folklore holds that the severity of a coming winter is predicted by the coat of the wooly worm, a black and brown caterpillar common in fall. If the wooly worm shows more black than brown, the winter will be bad.
Whether there is validity to this belief is frequently debated, and a long term scientific woolly worm study undertaken by Dr. Sandra Glover at Appalachian State University in Boone has yet to reach any conclusions.
In 1977, Jim Morton, then editor of Mountain Living magazine, decided he was willing to go along with the wooly worm theory, but the wooly worms he saw only confused him.
"They all looked different from each other," he says. "It was a matter of which was right and which was wrong."
It occurred to Jim that a simple way to determine which woolly worm was right about the winter would be to hold a race. The winning worm would be the official weather predictor.
Thus was born the Woolly Worm Festival. It is held each year on the third Saturday of October, and in past years it has been held on the practice football field beside the gymnasium at Lees-McRae College on NC 184 in Banner Elk (the location may change). More than 1,000 people attend the races, and as many as 350 have paid the $5 fee to enter a favorite worm.
The worms race on three-foot strings in heats of fifteen at a time. Winners then compete in crawl-offs until only one is left. The festival also includes mountain music and a gustatory treat called Woolly Worm in a blanket-a sausage dog made to resemble a woolly worm in a roll.
The Old Farmer's Almanac (published Dublin, NH) explains that their "secret" forecasting methods are based on sunspots or such... Don't know about the competing Farmer's Almanac, but they, too, probably have some "secret" forecasting methods...
What is interesting/fun is that over time their forecasts seem to be remarkably accurate. Of course, there was an old GP who once told me (he was about 85 at the time) why his predictions of a baby's sex were renowned for accuracy: when parents asked, he would tell them one sex and write down the other. Of course, if he guessed correctly, they never asked to check what he had written down... So perhaps the almanac is something like that.
There has been a copy in my family's houses all my life--every year. I've been reading it since the 1950s or so (when I was a kid). Does anyone rely on it? That depends upon what you mean by "rely." For entertainment? You bet. For planting tips, etc. Yes, I think so. I actually think they not only base forecasts on stuff like sunspots, wooly worms, etc. but also on some "scientific" long-range weather forecasting. and stuff like El Nino, La Nina, etc.
How "accurate" is a long-range forecast? Anyone's long-range forecast? If they predict a mild winter, I won't toss away my snow shovels... On the other hand, if they predict a severe winter and storms at certain times, I may be alerted to pay special attention to weather forecasts during those time periods (especially if I know I will be traveling or something--I will read prediction for my daughter's birthday, for example.)
I think that we all, whether we admit it or not, pay attention to what happens in our environment as well as scientific forecasting. Yes, I do check out the wooly worms. I also "smell" snow, pay attention to thunderheads, etc. If the TV tells me that it won't rain, but it "feels like" rain, I pay attention to my "feeling" as much as to the TV. (We had no rain forecast last night, but it rained buckets for a while. I somehow expected the rain, but it was the "feel like" expectation.
In my childhood there were always some old geezers who were really good at predicting the weather, and they told younger people who listened (many did not want to) what they were "looking at" but certainly since the 1950s, 1960s or so we've gotten away from listening, watching animal behavior, etc.
When you live near the coast, you know bad storms are coming when the seagulls go miles inland and when all the other birds sort of disappear... The gulls tend to have favorite places to hang out during storms and if you see a bunch of seagulls in some parking lot north of the Merrit Parkway in Southern CT, you've got a storm coming... I'm sure there are similar signs in other places.
As for wooly worms (a.k.a. "wooly bears"):
The Farmer's Almanac Wooly Worm information is at:
http://www.almanac.com/preview2000/woollybears.html
Scott-in-VA (S2K member) had more on Wooly Worms on his old site. Scott, have you updated links??
Also, there is this:
Woolly Worm Festival
Mountain folklore holds that the severity of a coming winter is predicted by the coat of the wooly worm, a black and brown caterpillar common in fall. If the wooly worm shows more black than brown, the winter will be bad.
Whether there is validity to this belief is frequently debated, and a long term scientific woolly worm study undertaken by Dr. Sandra Glover at Appalachian State University in Boone has yet to reach any conclusions.
In 1977, Jim Morton, then editor of Mountain Living magazine, decided he was willing to go along with the wooly worm theory, but the wooly worms he saw only confused him.
"They all looked different from each other," he says. "It was a matter of which was right and which was wrong."
It occurred to Jim that a simple way to determine which woolly worm was right about the winter would be to hold a race. The winning worm would be the official weather predictor.
Thus was born the Woolly Worm Festival. It is held each year on the third Saturday of October, and in past years it has been held on the practice football field beside the gymnasium at Lees-McRae College on NC 184 in Banner Elk (the location may change). More than 1,000 people attend the races, and as many as 350 have paid the $5 fee to enter a favorite worm.
The worms race on three-foot strings in heats of fifteen at a time. Winners then compete in crawl-offs until only one is left. The festival also includes mountain music and a gustatory treat called Woolly Worm in a blanket-a sausage dog made to resemble a woolly worm in a roll.
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