0Z GFS, UKMET, CMC, NGPS hinting at Dev in SW Caribbean

[MWatkins]

The 0Z GFS is starting to hint at some development in the SW Caribbean...check out the 00Z model at the 850MB vorticity level in 3 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072s.gif

A very weak vortex off the CA coast which is progged to sit there and slowly move west over time.

The 0Z NOGAPS model is also picking up on this feature come day 3:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

But by day 4 it loses it.

The 0Z CMC also grabs it but keeps it shallow and moves it into the EPAC in 120 hours.

Ugh...even the 0Z UKMET is recognizing a vort max at 925MB and doing a little something with it down there...but again taking it inland in Central America in the middle to late part of the period.

Of course...we have to keep a weary eye on things down there...but still a very weak system in all of the models...

MW

[Sanibel]

The Amazonian ITCZ keeps pumping those popcorn red dots of convection into the weak disturbance. Over the seasons I've noticed that systems in this particular area sometimes start with those small round deep red dots appearing like popcorn boils.

This one is weak and under threat of drifting into Central America. If it re-fires tomorrow it climbs another step...

[Sanibel]

Another thing worth mentioning is the fact that no systems formed here last year. Probability would probably loan more possibility because of this...

[HURAKAN]

Another thing worth mentioning is the fact that no systems formed here last year. Probability would probably loan more possibility because of this...

Probably you don't remember TS Odette? Right?

[alicia-w]

I'm glad someone credible mentioned this. I brought it up yesterday and was ignored. Thanks, Mike.

[Josephine96]

Great lol.. More storms lol

[Brent]

How nice.

[mascpa]

You sure laugh a lot John. You must be one happy guy.

[Josephine96]

I try.. It's the only way to keep myself sane

[iluvseashore]

So, I guess we can expect October to be an active month?

I was really looking forward to some sun for a change.

[dhweather]

I wouldn't say October is or isn't going to be active, it's a wait and see.

All was quiet in the tropics, then WHACK. Were it
not for Lisa, all would be quiet for a change.

[mascpa]

I'm looking forward to December!

[Sanibel]

Oh Yeah, Odette. Think she hit Hispaniola. My US bias must only remember Florida threats.


Today the chainsawing TUTT is more firmly in place than ever and is the dominating feature. The disturbance is still on the weak side and I'm not sure if the TUTT hasn't forced its main center over into EPAC. Colombia is still providing more convection to fill in behind it, but the TUTT has weakened the climatological potential by creating unfavorability.

The only way this will form is if the TUTT backs off and allows that Amazon material to flow in and take.

[Wnghs2007]

Grrrrrrrrrrr. No more. DEVELOPMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:(

[Rainband]

NOGAPS has backed off. Thats my model of choice...this year it has done very well IMHO.

[Anonymous]

Looks like climatology agrees that this could bring some action to Florida with most storms in September passing East of Fla putting the odds at only 12% at best in September.... In Octobor, the odds of a Fla hit go up significantly to near 18%....The highest chance in the Atlantic Basin for October.

September...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_sep.htm

October...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm