Western caribbean will be a hot spot in next few days

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cycloneye
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Western caribbean will be a hot spot in next few days

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2004 6:54 pm

Code: Select all

THE W CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE A
PLACE TO WATCH FOR TROPICAL GENESIS WITH MODELS DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGING IN THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


The above an extract from the 8 PM discussion.

For those who want to see a little more action the above is good news for you :)

Right now that area is closed for any development but as I haved said in other threads when the TUTT trough moves away then conditions should be better so let's watch the area by the weekend or early next week.

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CARIBBEAN SEA...
TSTMS KEEP FIRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF A
BIG UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF
14N W OF 79W WITH STRONG TSTMS NEAR THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. 
DRY NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST
OF THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO TSTM BLOWOFF AND UPPER LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA ADVECTING THE MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING LOTS OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT N OF 16N E OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT.  IN ADDITION..WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-71W.  LOW WILL BE SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO THE REST OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.  THE W CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE A
PLACE TO WATCH FOR TROPICAL GENESIS WITH MODELS DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGING IN THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 



The above is the whole discussion about the caribbean sea at 8 PM EDT.
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:54 pm

That's enough of a hint to keep us on our toes, Luis. Thanks for the update.
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 29, 2004 8:32 pm

Wait until that convection moving in on the east TUTT margin meets up with the primed moisture in the SW corner...
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#4 Postby jes » Wed Sep 29, 2004 8:40 pm

That sounds like fun - as long as it stays at tropical storm strength. Although I do hope it waits a while longer because I am still tired.
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 29, 2004 8:55 pm

Nah TS are boring. Give us a big cane. Just weaken to a TS at landfall.
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Guest

#6 Postby Guest » Wed Sep 29, 2004 8:59 pm

King Tutt will be the culprit for development when this is all set & done.

The TUTT will help create divergence aloft & what not in the Central or SW Caribbean ,get convection to fire & cause a disturbance.As soon as that happens the TUTT will leave the area as such will conditions become more favorable & presto there will be your next storm.

Now which direction it will go will be determined by what type of wx pattern will be in place in about 6-8 days.
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 29, 2004 9:46 pm

I think the TUTT is weakening because small convection spots are appearing west of Jamaica in the middle of it.

In the meantime a nice flare is emerging off Maracaibo Venezuela...
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