Major cold wx coming to Midwest & Plains this week

Guest · #21 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:25 am

Great thread Purdue. Yes it does look like a nice bigger cool down is on the way for us folks in the midwest, Lakes and OV. I for one cant wait.

And NWIA i urge using extreme caution when using the 18z gfs. best to always go with the 12z or 00z instead.

weatherlover427 · #22 Postby **weatherlover427** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 2:16 am

Isn't that because the model data in the GFS is only updated at 00Z and 12Z or something like that? :?:

michaelwmoss · #23 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:01 am

Could very well be some new record lows!!

#24 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:17 am

39 here last night...2-5 degrees colder than any of the guidance. This has me wondering about this weekend and early next week...brrr

frankthetank · #25 Postby **frankthetank** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:33 am

COLDEST NIGHT SINCE LAST SPRING...

Outside La Crosse, WI....COLDER then forecasted by about 5F...I hit 35.2F (i left plants out thinking it would only get to 40F..oops)...Gardening season is over in my book...i just looked outside and even now there is still frost on the roofs in the shade...

therock1811 · #26 Postby **therock1811** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:13 am

If I read this right:

WED 06
37 63

That means where I am now at school, it may get to 32°???

therock1811 · #27 Postby **therock1811** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:15 am

And yet the NWS doesn't say anything colder than this:
Saturday night. Mostly clear. Colder with lows in the lower 40s.

#28 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:17 pm

That far out, the model may or may not be generating the correct amount of cold air. In general, the GFS likes to play catch up, and will under do temperature extremes. The MOS is partially statistical, so the numbers are based on forecast weather and on current climatology, which is warmer than 37 obviously by a good 10-15 degrees right now. The 5 degree thing is just a rule I like to use that is right on occasion. If you are out in the country in Florence, then you will obviously see temps colder than CVG, although those numbers are at the airport, which is relatively rural if I'm not mistaken. In any case, 32 is possible..either way it may be that cold near the surface, and many plants will see their fate this weekend and early next week.

Also, the NWS will never go to the extreme...they like to play it safe when we are talking about something nearly a week out (actually up until 2 days out or so they do this). It's one of my big beefs with the NWS - when it is totally clear it will be colder than the lower/mid 40's they should forecast this. Last winter when we had the outbreak of subzero weather (-10 to -25F) the MOS model output was nowhere close until a few days in advance...neither was the NWS with it's lows from 5-10 above zero. They are always playing catch up in these situtations, and the same often happens during really hot weather....they just under forecast the highs.

michaelwmoss · #29 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:20 pm

I think it was 42 here this morning in New Whiteland, IN

therock1811 · #30 Postby **therock1811** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:10 pm

Actually my house is in a city type area. However my school, 25 minutes east, is on a hill about 1000' high in a relatively rural area. And yeah the airport is also a fairly rural area. Not much there. This came from WKYT-TV, Lexington, KY (which is about 80 miles to my south):

Thu
Hi 70 F
Lo 45 F
Partly Sunny & Pleasant
Fri
Hi 76 F
Lo 49 F
Fair Skies, A Bit Warmer
Sat
Hi 67 F
Lo 57 F
Windy with Showers, Turning Cooler
Sun
Hi 64 F
Lo 35 F
Partly Sunny & Cool
Mon
Hi 66 F
Lo38 F
Scattered Clouds & Cool

therock1811 · #31 Postby **therock1811** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:16 pm

Now the NWS jumps on the bandwagon...how about temps dropping to the upper 30s 2 nights out of the next 7? Looks like Saturday night/early Sunday morning may see a light frost.

breeze · #32 Postby **breeze** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:27 pm

It was already in the upper 40°F range here,
early this morning. This "gawd-I'm-burning-up-
please-turn-on-the-a/c" woman is high fiving the
cooler temps! YES! YES! *high five* :lol:

Our humidity has been under 50%, for the past
week, and, even with 80°F, it's been quite
pleasant!

michaelwmoss · #33 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 7:07 am

They are jumping on the bandwagon at NWS Indianapolis as well:

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high around 78. South wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 9am. Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high around 61. North northwest wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low near 37. North northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high around 68. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 65.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 60.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 38.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 64.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 67.

#34 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 8:09 am

Last night's Eta is still shooting for upper 20's on Sunday morning...w/ the 2nd shot coming in for the middle of next week.

From http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model

michaelwmoss · #35 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 8:11 am

Though the SPC doesn't show it, does anyone think that there is a marginal severe threat for the Midwest and Ohio Valley for later on this evening?

therock1811 · #36 Postby **therock1811** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 8:17 am

I believe it is slim to none Michael.Reason being there won't be enough instability IMO.

Lifted Index: 8.47 C Risk: None
Lifted Index @300 mb: 12.36 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 10.38 C
Showalter Index: 11.05 C Risk: None
Total Totals Index: 33.00 C Risk: None
Vertical Totals Index: 22.50 C
Cross Totals Index: 10.50 C
K Index: -9.90 Risk: None
Sweat Index: 37.00 Risk: None
Energy Index: 2.76 Risk: None
CAPE: 22.4 J/kg
Conv Inhibition (B-): 10577.93 J/kg

Very little risk of storms IMO.

michaelwmoss · #37 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 8:19 am

Where did you get that information from?

#38 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 9:54 am

There will be strong convergence along the front, but the orientation of the 700 mb flow tells me most of the precipitation will be along and behind the front (making this a so-called "active" front). Any convective elements may transfer some brisk winds to the surface, but there are no outstanding low/mid level jet features to indicate that these would be severe...instability will also be lacking. The upper jet structure places the Ohio Valley, Midwest and Lakes in the left front quad of one jet and/or right rear of another, so this coupling will allow for tremendous upper level divergence. That alone suggests the vertical motions will be strong enough for some thunderstorms tonight.

PTrackerLA · #39 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:51 pm

Guess you could say they jumped "off" the band wagon over here. A few days ago we were supposed to have lows in the low 50's monday morning

.

ACADIA-IBERIA-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-ST MARY-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...
MORGAN CITY...NEW IBERIA...ST MARTINVILLE
1047 AM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

I'm tired of the dusty, dry conditions. Give me a big coldfront with lots of rain and lows in the 40's and I'll be happy!

michaelwmoss · #40 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 4:05 pm

Those are kind of rare down on the Gulf Coast aren't they?

Major cold wx coming to Midwest & Plains this week

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