Flareup of wave east of the windward islands

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#21 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:11 pm

Looks like a low pressure is forming on the SW side of it.
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Sanibel
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#22 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:15 pm

If this develops and heads west through the Caribbean, and the wave ahead of it doesn't form, I'd be worried about a low-tracker heading for Yucatan. But I'm unsure about track currents with that activity...
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9:48
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#23 Postby 9:48 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:59 pm

Sanibel, have you noticed the small surface circulation near 12N 41W? That could be a potential candidate for development if it is able to duck under the shear regime.

Latest sat images of the wave W of 50 show sustained convection and good low cloud element info. I'm going to stick my neck out and say we'll have a TD within 18 hours. Remember that Jeanne developed from a wave nearing the Lesser Antilles with very little TWO lead time.
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