Caribbean Sea discussion

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cycloneye
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Caribbean Sea discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:00 pm

Code: Select all

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W IS THE MAIN STORY WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM HISPANIOLA TO S AMERICA
FROM 70W-75W.  LOW IS MOVING W 15 KT WITH EVIDENCE THAT
TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  THIS IS THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING WESTWARD... LEAVING AT LEAST A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ON ITS E SIDE
WITH RIDGING FORMING IN ITS WAKE.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FAIRLY
LOW WITH ARUBA REPORTING 1008 MB THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  W OF
THE LOW.... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE OCEAN.  FARTHER INLAND.. DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE IS HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED TSTM DAY THERE.


8 PM discussion about caribbean above.

It will be a slow development period if it does develop at all so let's watch the area.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:11 pm

Guidance more robust in developing a system in the E PAC than in the W Caribbean tonight on the 12z runs ... should the E PAC system develop, the downstream effects would likely result in ... no significant development of the Caribbean system ...

SF
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:16 pm

Also, one ominous feature comes into play for the US with a monster dome of SFC high pressure building across the East and SE (1033mb-ish high) which could in turn lead to some very PLEASANT weather for the Eastern US in the next week.

SF
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:49 pm

Looks like the entire west basin just did a diurnal shut-off. No doubt will re-fire tomorrow...
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rainstorm

#5 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:13 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Also, one ominous feature comes into play for the US with a monster dome of SFC high pressure building across the East and SE (1033mb-ish high) which could in turn lead to some very PLEASANT weather for the Eastern US in the next week.

SF


whats ominous about a high pressure and great weather?
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:21 pm

rainstorm wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Also, one ominous feature comes into play for the US with a monster dome of SFC high pressure building across the East and SE (1033mb-ish high) which could in turn lead to some very PLEASANT weather for the Eastern US in the next week.

SF


whats ominous about a high pressure and great weather?


Well, you're missing the underlying result ... sprawling SFC high in the 1030-ish mb range over the Carolinas shunts everything down south and keeps it traversing WEST well south ... Good news for all those that NEED the break ... and not to mention, some COMFORTABLE sleeping weather ...

Looking forward to NOV when a good freeze KILLS these stinkin' mosquitoes!!!!!

SF
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#7 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:24 pm

i still dont see the ominous part
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