http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif
Not sure if this is Tropical....And I know that the GFS has been off this year...But just interesting none the less...Plus I'm just bored after the last few months which to be honest is a good thing..
GFS.....WGulf in 7 to 10 days....
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Stratosphere747
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First off glad I am bored tropically this season and my heart goes out to my Floridian friends.............very tough season we will never forget.
Secondly TX has been struck by quiet a few OCT storms AND a NOV storm in 1592 but that can be debated.
With the warming of the planet which we cannot deny.......to much proof over the past few years for me not to believe this is occuring......Oct TX hurricane threats will likely increase.
If Lili was 200 miles W of landfall the Upper TX Coast would have experienced TS conditions.
Times are a changing so count your blessings if you were not impacted by a tropical cyclone which includes all of us from Brownsville, TX to Portland, Maine.
On a side note Japan broke a landfall record for typhoons..............8........1990-6 previously
Secondly TX has been struck by quiet a few OCT storms AND a NOV storm in 1592 but that can be debated.
With the warming of the planet which we cannot deny.......to much proof over the past few years for me not to believe this is occuring......Oct TX hurricane threats will likely increase.
If Lili was 200 miles W of landfall the Upper TX Coast would have experienced TS conditions.
Times are a changing so count your blessings if you were not impacted by a tropical cyclone which includes all of us from Brownsville, TX to Portland, Maine.
On a side note Japan broke a landfall record for typhoons..............8........1990-6 previously
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stratosphere747
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Stormcenter
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Stratosphere747 wrote:KatDaddy....Have nothing but love for you since you are a fellow Texan.....But anything from 1592 can be more than debated....LOL...
We have only had 4 Hurricanes to strike Texas since 1900...
So history shows us that we should be safe...
But history is not quite on "track" this year...
In my opinion anything before satellite and recon was around can be debated.
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Ah Very true Stratosphere747. I just ran across the NOV storm at THe Weather Research site...........taken with many grains of salt and would like to dig deeper for the truth.
With that being said OCT TX storm are very very rare. 1949 and Jerry 1989 are the most current. I use Gilbert in 1988 as a baseline for the end of our hurricane season.
Juan in 1985 during the last few weeks of OCT was amazing. TS conditions across SE TX............of course hybrids have far ranging effects.
THXs for Love...........right back at ya!
Just think next year could be TX instead of our Floridian friend. For I truely hope not but I have learned from their posts.
What I have learned is faith, strength, and belief that only greatness can come from destruction. Something we should all think about
With that being said OCT TX storm are very very rare. 1949 and Jerry 1989 are the most current. I use Gilbert in 1988 as a baseline for the end of our hurricane season.
Juan in 1985 during the last few weeks of OCT was amazing. TS conditions across SE TX............of course hybrids have far ranging effects.
THXs for Love...........right back at ya!
Just think next year could be TX instead of our Floridian friend. For I truely hope not but I have learned from their posts.
What I have learned is faith, strength, and belief that only greatness can come from destruction. Something we should all think about
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stratosphere747
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weatherlover427
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AussieMark
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jlauderdal
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yoda wrote:GFS = Full of crap....
But we will see...
and if the gfs is full of crap what were your predictions inside of 48hrs with jeanne...i remember you a week today at about this time telling me and floydbuster on this board about all the shear ahead of jeanne. the gfs has been rather poor this year but lets not discount the modelyet...it could be right on this one. just because its bad with one system doesnt mean it will be bad with the next.
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vbhoutex
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Very good point!!! I am not even saying I like the GFS, but each model has its' biases as we all know. Each one will handle each system a little differently due to these biases. That is why it is so important to look at more than one model and to NOT RELY SOLEY ON MODELS when forecasting. Good old experience and common sense must also come into play if one is to truly do a good job of forecasting.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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GalvestonDuck
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I suppose it is interesting. Doesn't this also show it moving into the Panhandle of FL and then a second system (or the same?) redeveloping of the SE coast? http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/anima ... e=tpptmslp
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Rainband
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Huckster
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KatDaddy wrote:Ah Very true Stratosphere747. I just ran across the NOV storm at THe Weather Research site...........taken with many grains of salt and would like to dig deeper for the truth.
With that being said OCT TX storm are very very rare. 1949 and Jerry 1989 are the most current. I use Gilbert in 1988 as a baseline for the end of our hurricane season.
Juan in 1985 during the last few weeks of OCT was amazing. TS conditions across SE TX............of course hybrids have far ranging effects.
THXs for Love...........right back at ya!
Just think next year could be TX instead of our Floridian friend. For I truely hope not but I have learned from their posts.
What I have learned is faith, strength, and belief that only greatness can come from destruction. Something we should all think about
The Lake Charles NWS has a great compilation of info about Texas hurricanes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm
Scroll down to see the different periods and storms. There's a hurricane mentioned as having hit Galveston in Nov. 1527, and another one that apparently must have passed rather close in 1590. Also, another hurricane apparently struck in Nov. 1839. My guess is that they were possibly real hurricanes. After all, Texas probably has to get a storm in November, every few hundred years. There are some big gaps in the historical data, but I think this info confirms that storms do hit there at least on a rare occasions. My reasoning as to why my guess about why they were real is this, that they actually "hit" as opposed to just moving close, that would imply at least a north, or maybe even nnw movement. Other "off season" storms in the Gulf that might have been confused with hurricanes would be storms like the 1993 Superstorm and the hurricane in 1846 in LA. There's a record of a hurricane hitting LA in April of 1846, but my guess, based on how early it was and that it was moving NE apparently, is that it was probably not tropical. I guess we'll never know for sure, just my thoughts though.
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