Lisa still has a chance

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HurricaneBill
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Lisa still has a chance

#1 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:08 am

According to the 11PM discussion, Lisa might still be able to reach hurricane status (although briefly). Although she's beginning to move over cooler waters, she just needs to close the eyewall and that would allow her to nudge up to hurricane status.

The discussion said Lisa has about 24 hours left to become a hurricane.
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P.K.
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#2 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 01, 2004 4:19 am

Looking unlikely it will reach hurricane strength now. :(

From the 5am discussion:
LISA IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS NOW OVER 25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATER GETS COLDER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER 12 HR...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING A FRONTAL ZONE
AFTER 24 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH LISA UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR AND ABSORPTION BY THE LARGER LOW BEFORE 72 HR. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT LISA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTED OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
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