00Z GEM: "Here comes our next storm."

[PurdueWx80]

Tonight's GEM has a storm brewing in the Caribbean...moving towards the BOC/southern Gulf, then suddenly shooting north towards the US Gulf Coast. This is the Opalesque situation JB has been talking about for a while now. Here comes the next spurt in activity...

[southerngale]

Go away storm...the U.S. has had enough.

[HurricaneGirl]

[Ixolib]

Purdue - Realizing the typical thuoghts on models - especially this far out - what degree of confidence do you personally have in this particular model?

[bigmike]

typical model garbage. Way Way too far out to even predict this kind of thing.

[Guest]

typical model garbage. Way Way too far out to even predict this kind of thing.

[Scorpion]

Hey, theres possible development!! .

[dhweather]

The models provide trends pretty well.

As we've seen with countless tropical systems,
precision is not their forte' just yet.

I do not put a lot of faith in any model beyond 72
hours for an active cyclone, much less one that
does not even exist today.

With that said, you must also take into account
that many times, the models do quite well in
picking up disturbances that develop.

My point? It's an area that is favored climtalogically and if the models pick something up, we need to keep an eye on the area.
No need to dial 911 just yet.

[Stormsfury]

Interesting ... per GGEM, that the development in the GOM is enhanced by a 500mb trough in TX ... and rapidly moves NE in which the GGEM PHASES with the northern stream full latitude trough in Central Canada ...

That's quite a radical difference than what we've seen this season ...

SF

[Sanibel]

I don't trust models, but if you look at the wave that finally resolved from all that Caribbean mess it is timed to do just that. (If it forms)

[tronbunny]

the central pressure drops considerably over land.
Doesn't look like a TC

[Sanibel]

The Caribbean has grown more unfavorable since those SW Caribbean flare-ups a few days ago. While this one could root with sudden favorability, it doesn't look like it will now...

East of windwards was torn apart by this increasing unfavorability - as were other similarly-located waves this year when the TUTT was in place...

[PurdueWx80]

12Z Update...same general idea. I realize none of you like models and blah blah blah, but other than saying, this pattern looks favorable for a storm, and look at those pretty clouds down there..no one really has any idea what to expect without them. The GEM is a great model, it did a superb job with Ivan and several other storms this year. By the way, it is totally conceivable for a tropical storm to transition and deepen over land...all it takes is a strong upper trough in the right position - which the GEM shows. The upper low over the SW ends up being the mechanism for the push north into the States...on the 00Z run, and again on this morning's run. Now it takes the storm to TX.

[Sanibel]

I trust the "pretty clouds" and and synoptics on WV more than models. Just 2 days ago they were pointing towards a Low off Central America...

[Johnny]

Sanible, if you don't trust models then why do you even look at them? j/k

[Guest]

Come on Johnny you dont get over 500 posts without talking about the models.

[Sanibel]

I run GFDL and compare it to NHC. Then I read about synoptics from the best on the boards and finally put my eye to it.


I like GFDL, but it sometimes goes way-off by overreading a feature. It can also be too generous with intensity. The animated loop gives a good fluid look at synoptics. That helps me refine it with my eye...

[tronbunny]

Thank you, purdue, for your thoughts and analysis.

[bigmike]

I just wanted to make it clear when I called the model garbage it was just what I thought of the model and not purduewx. I apologize if my characterization offended anyone as it was not meant to be personal.

[PTrackerLA]

How can you say this model did good with Ivan? It predicted landfall around the TX/LA area until about 36 hours out. But anyway, this is the time of year for these types of GOM storms so we need to watch although I have a feeling the season is over west of N.O.