Dry May = More Florida Landfaller's

[Sanibel]

Back in July I posted about something I saw on the CNN science edition. Apparently they said that in seasons containing the 6 driest May's in south Florida 3 had major landfaller's. This year was the driest ever recorded.

The program explained that a dry May in south Florida is due to the Bermuda High being too far west causing high pressure that suppresses rainfall. This western position tends to stay for the season causing cyclones that encounter it to ride along its edge and into Florida. When the Bermuda High is further east and into the Atlantic cyclones recurve out to sea before reaching the US.

This CNN information verified big-time this year! Perhaps the dry May's without any landfallers didn't correspond to the warm/cool phases of the Atlantic/Pacific oscillations?

[Scorpion]

I was kind of thinking that too. It was really just a theory of mine that really had no basis until now. We had quite a dry early summer/late spring and I thought maybe more hurricanes will come this way to make up for the lack of rain .

[PurdueWx80]

Mother Nature is quite the balanced lady.

[Sanibel]

The hurricanes seek drought areas theory is sort of supported by blind statistics alone because on average a drought area is eventually going to have rain. In other words, no area remains in a drought forever, so those in a drought are closer to receiving their rains.


However, there could be a scientific reason also like the macro-scale Bermuda High phenomenon or the small scale possibility of drought areas reflecting more sun and therefore having better thermals over them. How that exactly works I'm not sure...

[Sanibel]

So, with 2004 included, it means out of the 7 driest May's in south Florida, 4 had major landfaller's and 1 had 2 (2004)...

[ColdFront77]

Back in July I posted about something I saw on the CNN science edition.

Back in July on TWCMB? (beings that you joined us here on August 31st)

[Stormsfury]

The program explained that a dry May in south Florida is due to the Bermuda High being too far west causing high pressure that suppresses rainfall. This western position tends to stay for the season causing cyclones that encounter it to ride along its edge and into Florida. When the Bermuda High is further east and into the Atlantic cyclones recurve out to sea before reaching the US.

WOW! Accurate CNN information? That's a first ...

All kidding aside, that's a VERY SOUND reasoning with a displacement of the Bermuda High farther westward, which prevented drove these storms further westward, and Florida was in the path of many of those storms before being able to recurve to the north and northeast ...

What occurred this year in Florida is a definite anomaly and by NO means, the norm ... Dr Gray's discussion regarding this explains it all ...

SF

[Sanibel]

A very statistical post isn't it Cold Front? I wondered where you went to after leaving TWC board...

[KeyLargoDave]

If memory serves, several Miami TV mets said that this was the fourth driest summer on record, before the hurricane deluge.
The other three years were 1935, 1992, and 1960. Labor Day, Andrew, Donna.

However, I don't believe the correlation is with a "dry May." May is always one of the driest months in South Florida. Although many think of May as the start of summer, South Flordida garden experts always warn against planting in May, because it's usually hot, windy, and not rainy. The summer rains usually don't start until later in June.

If anybody can find rainfall records or articles about the "dry years" correlation with landfalling hurricanes, let us know.

[ColdFront77]

Not too far to the north, across central Florida the rainy season starts the last week of May and runs through the middle of October.

[Sanibel]

The CNN report was very specific that it was the May rainfall record the statistic was connected to...

[tronbunny]

yes, Sanibel, but it suggests that we'd get at least a major landfaller...
not 3!

I agree that "drier=more" but the paths and nature of ALL storms this year were un-precedented.
I contend that unprecedented will continue
(high-fallutin' way of saying I don't think anyone REALLY knows - they just "guess" in an educated sorta way)

[Sanibel]

No I disagree with that assessment. Having seen the actual program it specified that the Bermuda High would remain in a near-Florida position allowing cyclones to ride it's southern edge and into Florida. I don't see anything that was inaccurate with that...

[KeyLargoDave]

Agree that the position of the Bermuda high causes both less rain and more landfalls because it steers them more into Florida. That's the essence of the pattern change.

It was very dry here in the late 80s also, for several years, but I don't know if the high was the cause then, or if El Nino and lower SSTs kept the number of storms down even if the high was in place like this year.

[tronbunny]

Then why, if that is the hallmark, then didn't all the experts warn us that most every strom would hit Florida.
Hindsight is 20/20.
The signs may have been there, and the puzzle comes together now, but I cannot agree that everyone could tell that the High would sit there and drive all the storms into Florida.
It's clearly a good sign, but by no means a "sure thing" (at least wasn't then..)
I'm sure that what we've observed this season will bias our future forecasts.

[Brent]

The program explained that a dry May in south Florida is due to the Bermuda High being too far west causing high pressure that suppresses rainfall. This western position tends to stay for the season causing cyclones that encounter it to ride along its edge and into Florida. When the Bermuda High is further east and into the Atlantic cyclones recurve out to sea before reaching the US.

WOW! Accurate CNN information? That's a first ...

[Rainband]

What occurred this year in Florida is a definite anomaly and by NO means, the norm ... Dr Gray's discussion regarding this explains it all ...

SF

Weather patterns are changing plain and simple, mother nature doesn't play by any rules...at least not anymore.

[Guest]

Like what you all are talking about but EC FL> did not have a dry may. If fact it rained alot South Fl had the drought.

[Aquawind]

I remember this dry May discussion..I think "May" and the "Dryness" has little to do with the what has actually happened..wayyyy to vague.. like a daily horiscope imho..

The Berumda high itself and the lack of a persistant trough along the East coast seemed to open the door versus..moisture in May..

I remember getting some decent spotty rains here in SW Florida in May and afterall we had the 8th wettest June on record..so a couple of weeks or even a month of data isn't gonna make me nervous after the next dry May..Things change very quickly obviously and it has nothing to do with the name of month or the previously recorded precip..

It's Always a combination of Factotors..ALWAYS...

This is a candy a** gereralization in terms the people can understand versus the technical realities...imho.

EVERY DROUGHT IS ENDED WITH FLOOD...Mother Nature likes the dramatics is all...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/cgi-bin/pro ... =TBWCLMFMY

[Sanibel]

I believe they said south Florida. It makes sense that the east coast would be drier because it is closer to the Bermuda High on the Atlantic.


Interesting that before 2004 it was 3 out of 6 seasons having major landfallers in the 6 worst drought years. Which means that 3 probably had a west position Bermuda High with no landfallers. This makes me ask if these years happened to be bad oscillation years for the Atlantic/Pacific rhythms? Years where the High was in place to push storms into Florida, only there were no storms to push?

Now, with 2 majors landfalling, 2004 makes it 4 out of 7...