Don't discount the Caribbean system...

[Hyperstorm]

The system is on the EAST side of an Upper-Level Low and moisture in that periphery is moving WNW-NW. Don't be surprised if the moisture circles around the ULL and moves into the NW Caribbean within 24 hours. I've seen this kind of situation many times to just let the guard down like nothing happened.

Models don't seem to support the idea of development like the past few days probably because the data that's being input into the models support the idea of a move to the East Pacific, thus that may "manipulate" in a way the potential for development in the Gulf or Caribbean.

If the system moves NW, I wouldn't doubt development could take place. There's so much energy clustered that it has to do something with the current synoptic pattern. These are the pre-development stages.

I'll be watching...

[PurdueWx80]

Models don't seem to support the idea of development like the past few days probably because the data that's being input into the models support the idea of a move to the East Pacific, thus that may "manipulate" in a way the potential for development in the Gulf or Caribbean.

Oh yeah???







Looks like the models are supporting it to me. This storm in the western Gulf comes from the mess going on in the western Caribbean right now. I'll assume the GEM's 2nd storm (near FL) comes from the wave near the Lesser Antilles now...but it's hard to say since the domain doesn't reach out that far.

[Sanibel]

Exactly. That movement over these waters trumps ULL disruption. It's been going on for 5 days now. The very fact alone that the SW Caribbean low pressure area is still convecting a solid disturbance speaks enough...

A NW movement is a classic October climatological track in these waters...

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, there are some, but not as many as there were earlier. However, my explanation for that I posted in the above post, as I think it has more to do with the movement into the East Pacific, which I doubt.

Right now, I'm focusing on the current setup and impressive convective firing...

[WeatherEmperor]

Again we are gonna have to play the "wait and see" game.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

I think what is there at the eclipse tonight will be telling...

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

The system has moved very little since yesterday mainly toward the west-northwest. Part of the convection is now inland over Central America, including a MLC that was visible yesterday. However, part of the convection remains offshore and I think there's a good chance (since steering winds are weak) that a LLC develops just north of Honduras as the mass continues to drift.

The assumption by some that it was totally heading toward the East Pacific is inaccurate, as the system has a good piece of it over the Caribbean. This tells me that there is still a very good chance of development sometime this week.

This kind of setup where the system remains stuck off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua and develops is not unheard off. Michelle in 2001 started out similarly. It gradually developed a broad center that as soon as it hit the water...BOOM, rapid development flourished.

Possibilities are endless and I'll be watching...

[Hyperstorm]

Forgot to add that there is a slight hint of a very weak MLC near the coast of NE Nicaragua. That's the area that convergence appears to be strongest. However, any push westward will put it inland.

Skirting around the coast will put it over 85* waters...

[Sanibel]

Michelle formed faster. I remember Michelle well because she made a run at coming here then turned right over Cuba and wrecked it.


I agree with your other thoughts. This can only be called persistence...