Winter Analog Implications of Dr. Gray's Analysis

[donsutherland1]

For those who might be starting to think about the coming winter, Dr. Gray's assessment on the 2004 hurricane season to date is revealing in that it notes, "Long period records indicate that active hurricane seasons almost never occur with such high positive values of Atlantic SLPA or when such high anomalous values of sea surface temperature are present in NINO 3.4 (August-September 2004 values were +0.8°C)."

Since 1950 when regular reporting of the global indices has been available, there were two hurricane seasons that saw 10 or more named storms when Region 3.4 had an average temperature at or above 27.5°C (anomaly at or above +0.6°C) for the May-November period:

Code: Select all

Year   R3.4 Temp.   R3.4 Anom.Named Storms   
1969   27.60°C      + 0.64°C   17
2002   28.07°C      + 1.10°C   12
2004   27.76°C      + 0.50°C   12
   



For now, as food for thought, I'll only note that these two years have popped up on other occasions in discussions of possible analogs for Winter 2004-05.

[Anonymous]

Don,

Are you hinting towards a rough winter in the MA?
1969- results?

[donsutherland1]

BEF,

1969-70 had below normal temperatures and below normal snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic region. DCA saw 14.0" in that winter. Winter 2002-03 was about a degree warmer than 1969-70 in the DCA area but saw 40.4" of snow.

As for Winter 2004-05, I have not yet finalized analogs and am awaiting the September data. Needless to say, there are some exciting analogs that are in contention. Whether or not they'll make the cut is another thing.

At this point, I am leaning toward colder than normal in the East (including the Mid-Atlantic) given that the El Niño will be weak with the warmest anomalies focused over the Central Pacific (R 3.4's warm anomalies should be significantly greater than R 1+2's warm anomalies and it is possible that R 1+2 could retain cool anomalies).

[Anonymous]

I think that after a "winter" like last winter in N VA, where several snowstorms just missed us, that this winter we should at least do somewhat better in the snow department here in Woodbridge. HOWEVER, we did get 15 inches all season last winter and the average snow for N VA IS about 10 to 14 inches.

[Guest]

you kidding? here in fairfaz county mclean our avg is 22.

[Anonymous]

you kidding? here in fairfaz county mclean our avg is 22.

I stand corrected.

I need to be more specific. I was referring to the average snowfall for an entire season in eastern Prince William County, when the average is computed over the past 30 years.

That snowfall average for an entire season here in eastern Prince William county near Woodbridge, is approximately 10 to 14 inches of snow. However, Manassas to our northwest tends to see more snow than we do.