Code: Select all
.LONG TERM...WILL BEGIN WITH SOME EXCERPTS FROM THE LATEST PMDEPD.
"MOST MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH ENOUGH WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT TO STEER THIS SYS
NWD. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALONE IN GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW
AND MOVING IT NWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST AS SOON AS THU DAY 5. WE
DISCOUNT THE CANADIAN SOLUTION ATTM...BUT STILL BELIEVE THAT SOME
LOW PRESSURE MAY DRIFT N IN THE FAR WRN GULF BY NEXT FRI-SAT. GULF
RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS STILL APPEARS TO BE WEAK
DURING THIS PERIOD. NEXT FRI-SAT DAYS 6-7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE
TX/LA AREA AND DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK/TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LOW." THE 5H TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE ELONGATED OVER THE TX/MEX BORDER REGION BY FRI. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHALLOWER TROUGH WILL A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED ALONG THE
TX COASTLINE LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE
5H TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF A 5H LOW OVER THE EL PASO AREA
BY 12Z SAT. BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF AND THE GFS 5H FIELDS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH UNTIL 12Z FRI
WITH THE BIGGEST DIFERENCES SHOWING UP BY 12Z NEXT SAT WITH THE 5H
CLOSED LOW FORMATION. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 5H
TROFFING WILL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW FORMATION WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL POPS OVER THE BRO CWA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE HIGHER POPS...TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AND CLD COVER WILL
HOLD DOWN TEMPS LATER THIS WEEK TO NEAR OF JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
