Effects of Lisa at the UK

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL STORM LISA       (AL132004) ON 20041002  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041002  1800   041003  0600   041003  1800   041004  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    42.5N  36.5W   43.0N  29.3W   43.4N  20.8W   44.8N  11.3W
  BAMM    42.5N  36.5W   43.2N  30.3W   43.3N  22.6W   43.9N  14.5W
  A98E    42.5N  36.5W   44.7N  29.7W   46.0N  17.7W   47.3N  10.1W
  LBAR    42.5N  36.5W   44.1N  29.5W   46.0N  20.1W   50.0N   5.4W
  SHIP        55KTS          46KTS          39KTS          32KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          46KTS          39KTS          32KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041004  1800   041005  1800   041006  1800   041007  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    47.7N   1.6W   53.9N  19.4E   51.9N  36.0E   48.7N  42.7E
  BAMM    45.9N   6.6W   52.9N  10.7E   56.9N  30.4E   56.7N  49.8E
  A98E    45.1N   7.4W   45.5N   8.0E   47.5N  22.3E   46.5N  29.3E
  LBAR      .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        24KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        27KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  42.5N LONCUR =  36.5W DIRCUR =  55DEG SPDCUR =  22KT
  LATM12 =  40.3N LONM12 =  41.6W DIRM12 =  59DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
  LATM24 =  37.7N LONM24 =  45.9W
  WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   65KT
  CENPRS =  990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  150NM RD34SW =   50NM RD34NW =  50NM



[Brent]

The LBAR has officially gone crazy, 0 N and 0 W? That's south of Western Africa... LOL

[KWT]

cyclone as much as I would love to be right,I'm afarid it's just not going to happen.

as this thing is heading NE our way!!!!

landfall(sort of!!!! )in either Devon or Cornwall

[JenyEliza]

cyclone as much as I would love to be right,I'm afarid it's just not going to happen.

as this thing is heading NE our way!!!!

landfall(sort of!!!! )in either Devon or Cornwall

Get the ark ready....looks like you might be needing it.

Stay safe and dry over there, KWT!! We'll be thinking of ya.

Jeny

[James]

Whether it goes further south or not, it's pretty likely that the southern counties of England will see some effects, although they may be minimal.

[KWT]

well whatever happens the models are not handleing this well.

UkMO has it at 43 degrees,GFS at 47 degrees north,that's a huge difference considering this system is now less then 24 hours away.

whatever happens I've heard the words 'a fair few inches' and also the words '60-70Mph gusts possible'

[James]

Sounds like it could get a little rough here.

[cycloneye]

Dont see these models as a gospel that will happen but look at reallity how the system is moving so be prepared for some bad weather in Great Britain especially in the southern part.

[KWT]

apperently the west will get most of the wind and rain tonight,than during tonight the south shall get battered as well.

[KWT]

heres the latest warning,with 10% chance of 80Mph+ gusts:

952
WOUK66 EGRR 030744
EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

EARLY WARNING OF HEAVY RAIN


ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 08:45 ON SUNDAY, 3 OCTOBER 2004.

OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT: THE PROBABILITY OF DISRUPTION DUE TO
SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PART OF THE UNITED KINGDOM WITHIN THE
NEXT 30 HOURS IS 90 PERCENT.

REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12:00 ON SUNDAY 3 OCTOBER 2004 AND 15:00 ON
MONDAY 4 OCTOBER 2004.

NORTHERN SCOTLAND 40[ PERCENT
EASTERN SCOTLAND 60[ PERCENT
SOUTH WEST SCOTLAND 70[ PERCENT
NORTHERN IRELAND 60[ PERCENT
NORTH WEST ENGLAND 80[ PERCENT
NORTH EAST ENGLAND 60[ PERCENT
THE MIDLANDS 60[ PERCENT
WALES 80[ PERCENT
SOUTH WEST ENGLAND 70[ PERCENT
CENTRAL SOUTHERN ENGLAND 50[ PERCENT
SOUTH EAST ENGLAND 30[ PERCENT
EAST ANGLIA AND LINCOLNSHIRE 30[ PERCENT

ALL OTHER REGIONS LESS THAN 20[

THIS IS THE SECOND UPDATE TO THAT ISSUED ON FRIDAY 1 OCTOBER 2004.

THE MET OFFICE IS EXPECTING A COMPLEX, DEEPENING DEPRESSION TO RUN
NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE BRITISH ISLES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE UK, FINALLY CLEARING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
TOMORROW. SOME PROLONGED SPELLS OF VERY WET WEATHER ARE LIKELY WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 25-50MM IN THE HIGHER RISK AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE
BUT AS MUCH AS 75-100MM POSSIBLE LOCALLY (MAINLY IN EXPOSED UPLAND
LOCATIONS).

WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GALES IN PLACES,
PARTICULARLY WESTERN AREAS OF ENGLAND AND ?WALES WHERE THERE REMAINS
A 30[ RISK OF DAMAGING 60-70MPH GUSTS. THESE MAY LEAD TO DISRUPTION
TO TRANSPORT DUE TO FALLEN DEBRIS FROM TREES, PARTICULARLY SINCE
THEY ARE STILL IN FULL LEAF AT PRESENT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A LOW
(10[) RISK SEVERE GALES GIVING GUSTS OVER 80MPH IN EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SCOTLAND INCLUDING NE ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

FOR ENQUIRIES REGARDING THIS WARNING - PLEASE CONTACT YOUR REGIONAL
MET OFFICE.
TRANSMITTED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 08:45 ON SUNDAY 03 OCTOBER 2004
THIS WARNING IS LIKELY TO BE UPDATED AROUND 09:00 TOMORROW MORNING
UNLESS SUPERCEDED BY FLASH MESSAGES.

[KWT]

1st wave is still devloping currently,while GFS gives us in the east a big load of fun,with gales,and at the same time a active frontal system moves thourgh!!!!

[JenyEliza]

KWT,

Looks like you're getting bad weather today. Keep us posted as to what is happening across the pond, and stay safe and dry, ok?

Jeny

[KWT]

Yes I shall.

currently only raining lightly with the first frontal system breaking up abit now,however another load of rain is heading into the Irish sea.

no winds here yet in the east of the U.K,although it will pick up more during today.

top gust so far:

47Mph.

[JenyEliza]

Yes I shall.

currently only raining lightly with the first frontal system breaking up abit now,however another load of rain is heading into the Irish sea.

no winds here yet in the east of the U.K,although it will pick up more during today.

top gust so far:

47Mph.

From the looks of the graphics you posted, I wouldn't want to be in Ireland/No. Ireland right now.

Sadly, my boss is on holiday in Ireland at the moment. Imagine he's rather tired of this kind of weather...since he's based in Atlanta and we've been beaten up with 'Cane remnants all summer/fall. So...he goes to Ireland on holiday...only to find more of the same. Poor fella.

Keep up the excellent reports from your side of the ocean....I'll stay tuned!

Thanks,

Jeny

[KWT]

Yes,although Ireland should actually stay fairly calm in comparision to the Irish sea,where gusts are expected to reach 60-70Mph.

Lisa is still surviving well(this picture is from net-weather by the way!!!)



It's to the SW of the Barolinic leaf,it's still doing okay although it is slowly getting weaker although it still has a massive windflied of 145 miles with tropical storm strength winds.

[KWT]

A small chance of isolated severe thunderstorms as well tonight,altohugh it is only a small chance:

[KWT]

Lisa is now extra-tropical and has engaded with the frontal system to it's north.

this system is now slowing down alot and it may not be till tommorow U.K time that we find out wether it has deepened dramitcally or not.

top winds are still only 50Mph although winds are now picking up in Wales as well.The first load of rain has just passed thourgh,although there is alot more rain to come for all areas of the U.K.

[KWT]

A mass of heavy rain has just swept inland into Wales,it wouldn't suprise me if there is some flooding in areas,elsewhere there must be around 100 weakish showers dotted all over the country,the wind is yet to pick up although there have been recently some gusts at 45Mph.

[JenyEliza]

KWT,

The UK is 5 (or 6) hours ahead of the US Eastern Time? Is Ireland on the same time zone? I've forgotten.

Jeny

[KWT]

5 hours ahead,it's currently 5.26PM.

the best way I can show you whats going on is it's abit like before a hurricane makes landfall.Beforehand there are usually loads of thunderstorms infront of the system,this is exactly the same apart from much weaker and they are only showers.

I'm now awaiting to see Lisa come onto the radar screen...and hopeing that it doesn't deepen expolisivly,or it could be along night for some places...