Ivan made landfall as a cat 3 130 mph

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/Ivan-main.htm

A complete ivan page from Mobile where you can see all of what happened when Ivan made landfall as a strong cat 3 130 mph.

[Rainband]

No surprise there, after seeing the damage

[birdwomn]

thanks so much for the link!

[Derek Ortt]

that report is not absed upon best track; however. the official wind speed at landfall will not be available for a few more months

[Anonymous]

130 mph seems right. The damage was not all caused by a 12 foot surge. It was 135 mph, as the northern eyewall made landfall. It had weakened to 130 mph by the time the eye crossed the coast.

[Derek Ortt]

when best track comes out, the intensity is not likely to be anything higher than 105KT

a little secret about the operational intensity statements, those ar enot always based upon the data. Often, the operational intenisty is held much higher than the real intensity (as it was with Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when it had weakened to a cat 1 hurricane with 65KT winds) so that the general public does not think the storm has fallen apart and they continue to take it seriously

[Stormsfury]

when best track comes out, the intensity is not likely to be anything higher than 105KT

a little secret about the operational intensity statements, those ar enot always based upon the data. Often, the operational intenisty is held much higher than the real intensity (as it was with Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when it had weakened to a cat 1 hurricane with 65KT winds) so that the general public does not think the storm has fallen apart and they continue to take it seriously

Derek, I see your point, as to not cause the public into a state of "Did I evacuate for a storm that was going to fall apart and I didn't need to?" ... however, at the same time, when "best track" plots and analyses come out and the winds, do in fact, come out weaker, stronger, or the same ... the damage itself, which was extensive should still be emphasized that it doesn't take a CAT 3 or higher to cause mind-boggling damage ... that's what should be focused on, even with the heightened sense of "hurricane awareness" ... 2004 has awoke many, many eyes, especially those living on the coast that were NOT affected ... Florida's ordeal with Frances weakening saw a lot of complacency with Jeanne's approach and although, preparations were still done very well, many people didn't want to leave AGAIN because of Frances' weakening before landfall ...

SF

[PurdueWx80]

when best track comes out, the intensity is not likely to be anything higher than 105KT

a little secret about the operational intensity statements, those ar enot always based upon the data. Often, the operational intenisty is held much higher than the real intensity (as it was with Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when it had weakened to a cat 1 hurricane with 65KT winds) so that the general public does not think the storm has fallen apart and they continue to take it seriously

Did you mean Frances???

[Anonymous]

Well if anything 125 mph. I HIGHLY doubt it was any weaker. It was Ivan! Come on. 140 mph then 135 mph, then 130 mph, then 115 mph after moving inland.

[Stormsfury]

when best track comes out, the intensity is not likely to be anything higher than 105KT

a little secret about the operational intensity statements, those ar enot always based upon the data. Often, the operational intenisty is held much higher than the real intensity (as it was with Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when it had weakened to a cat 1 hurricane with 65KT winds) so that the general public does not think the storm has fallen apart and they continue to take it seriously

Did you mean Frances???

I think he did ... which made me edit a statement on my post b/c I also put the wrong storm in on a line as well ...

[Derek Ortt]

NO, I mean Jeanne.

Recon data showed that 48 hours before landfall, Jeanne weakened to a 65KT hurricane. It quickly intensified into a 105-110T hurricane at the time of landfall. NHC did not call Jeanne a cat 1 (although they basically said it in their morning discussion) likely so that people would still take it seriously because they knew it would be a major hurricane at landfall; thus, the people would continue to take it somewhat seriously

[Anonymous]

THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 969 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT WINDS OF NEAR 90 KT. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 700 MB WERE ONLY 74 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CLOSER TO 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT...BUT ALSO SHOW A MUCH LESS DEFINED EYE. BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
IS THAT IT DEREK?

[Anonymous]

My final guess:

Charley: 150 mph/941 mb
Frances: 105 mph/960 mb
Ivan::::: 125 mph/943 mb
Jeanne:: 125 mph/947 mb

[PurdueWx80]

NO, I mean Jeanne.

Recon data showed that 48 hours before landfall, Jeanne weakened to a 65KT hurricane. It quickly intensified into a 105-110T hurricane at the time of landfall. NHC did not call Jeanne a cat 1 (although they basically said it in their morning discussion) likely so that people would still take it seriously because they knew it would be a major hurricane at landfall; thus, the people would continue to take it somewhat seriously

Ok, gotcha. Sorry about that.

[wxman57]

All observations from southern Alabama and the western FL panhandle (per the NWS post-storm reports) indicate max winds in the 76 kt range and peak gusts in the 105-110 kt range in Pensacola. The post storm reports didn't mention any higher winds, but they call Ivan a "130 mph hurricane" at landfall. Anyone here know of any higher sustained winds measured? Now it does look like the strongest winds may have moved ashore west of Pensacola just east of Mobile Bay, where there aren't any sensors.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

A. HIGHEST WINDS...

ASOS STATIONS...
MOBILE (MOB) SUSTAINED 010/51 KNOTS AT 16/0644 UTC
PEAK GUST 020/65 KNOTS AT 16/0706 UTC

PENSACOLA (PNS) SUSTAINED WIND 120/65 KNOTS AT 16/0650 UTC
PEAK GUST 120/89 KNOTS AT 16/0650 UTC
NO DATA AFTER 16/0650 UTC

MILITARY SITES...
PENSACOLA NAS(NPA) SUSTAINED 150/76 KNOTS AT 16/0829 UTC
PEAK GUST 140/107 KNOTS AT 16/0838 UTC

BUOY DATA...
DAUPHIN ISLAND (DPIA1) SUSTAINED 060/61 KNOTS 16/0329 UTC
PEAK GUST 050/89 KNOTS AT 16/0329 UTC

[PurdueWx80]

The power also went out well before Ivan made landfall, making it impossible to measure the highest winds.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I do not doubt they weren't measured. These are sensors that failed easily during Erin and Opal.....so highest winds were probably not recorded.

However.....wind damage is aligned with that of a borderline 3/4 and surge is definitely that of a 4.

[alicia-w]

PENSACOLA (PNS) SUSTAINED WIND 120/65 KNOTS AT 16/0650 UTC
PEAK GUST 120/89 KNOTS AT 16/0650 UTC
NO DATA AFTER 16/0650 UTC

I think it's important to note the NO DATA AFTER 0650 UTC comment. I also heard that Pensacola NAS weather station was destroyed. So there may indeed have been higher velocities that werent recorded. Does that mean they didnt occur? Of course not!

Sort of like the story of if a tree falls in the woods and no one's there to hear it, does it make any noise?

[Derek Ortt]

we need to consider the results of the last classic GOM hurricane, Hurricane Georges, a 90KT hurricane at landfall.

When the obs failed, many wind gusts well over 120 m.p.h. were recorded. Wondering where these reports are with Ivan. Wait, there is only 1 of thse and in Pensacola where the strongest winds made landfall.

Recon flight level and SFMR data, along with satellite and radar all show a rapidly weakening hurricane at landfall with the increase in pressure, lowering of FL winds, and the complete dissipation of the southern eye wall.

In short, as bad as Ivan was, a category 4 will be many times worse for the northern Gulf Coast

[Anonymous]

It was a category 3. Although it was weakening, the winds only dropped from 135 to 130 mph before landfall, then the eye probably came onshore at 125 mph. Those who say 105 mph are pure crazy given the fact the NHC said it came onshore as a category 3. It was either 125-135 mph. 120 mph would be a longshot.

As for Jeanne, I think Jeanne was more in the 125-135 mph range as well.

Either way, we had (SO FAR OFFICALLY):

145 mph storm hit the US
105 mph storm hit the US
130 mph storm hit the US (RIGHT NOW THAT IS THE OFFICAL)
120 mph storm hit the US

one cat 2, two cat 3's, and one cat 4.