The Active 2004 Hurricane Season: A Foreseeable Situation

[donsutherland1]

Contrary to the idea that exists in some quarters that seasonal forecasting is a largely futile exercise, such forecasting can add value when it comes to forecasting whether or not a coming hurricane season will be active/inactive.

Colorado State University's Dr. Gray has established a demonstrated track record in this endeavor. Others have also fared well in such forecasting.

When it comes to the 2004 Hurricane Season, this season is a case in point that such forecasting can add value. From the start, an examination of the global indices contained a signature that was classic for a season that:

• Was active.
• Had above normal hurricane production.
• Had above normal landfalling activity.

This is a idea that I, among others, raised near the end of April over here. Where I fell short, was the idea concerning major hurricane production.

Even as the 2004 Hurricane Season advanced well into July with the Tropics remaining unusually quiet, this lull was properly seen as a false lull ahead of a veritable explosion of activity.

Indeed, against a profile of ENSO data, the 2004 season did not fit the profile of inactive seasons.

The following was noted at a time when doubts of an active 2004 hurricane season were at their highest tide:

Here's how years fared with an MEI in the 0.057-0.657 range:

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1951.......0.58.......10
1953.......0.35.......14
1958.......0.47.......10
1963.......0.44.........9
1969.......0.52.......17
1976.......0.50.........8
1979.......0.59.........8
1980.......0.52.......11
1990.......0.33.......14
1998.......0.13.......14
2003.......0.26.......16
Average named storms: 11.9

3) But that's not all, let's take into consideration the westerly QBO.

Here's what remains:

Year.......Named Storms
1953.......14
1969.......17
1980.......11
1990.......14

Average named storms: 14.0

The July ENSO regional data, namely the contrast in temperatures between ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 reaffirmed the idea of a very active season. The five seasons that met such criteria saw an average of 12.4 named storms develop, with one of those seasons (2003) seeing 16.

[Anonymous]

I forecasted 2 major hurricanes to hit the US....... Some thought that was "TOO MUCH"

[donsutherland1]

Floydbuster,

Unfortunately, even that forecast (of a rare climatological situation) proved too low, with the number at 3 at this point in time.

Great job in seeing this situation.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I would just like to note that the official count of named storms includes the "subtropical storm" at 18. I believe the reason is that they were not sure what the storm was.....however...the recently developed program may be able to prove what exactly it was.

[donsutherland1]

DoctorHurricane2003,

Thanks for noting this. I had copied from my earlier post, though I had corrected my numbers later. The correct data for named storms in a number of years in question is:

1969: 18
1976: 10
1979: 9

Average number of named storms irrespective of QBO: 12.3

Average number of named storms with west QBO: 14.3