#4 Postby GalvestonDuck » Sun Oct 03, 2004 4:59 pm
I think the key to remember is that these guys are basing their forecasts on how conditions are at the moment.
With the way the seismicity is right now at MSH, sounds to me like they're saying that, based on their knowledge of volcanic activity, an eruption right now (in the next few hours, I guess) would not be as bad as the 1980 eruption. HOWEVER, just like with a hurricane, if conditions change as they continue to monitor the tremors, they may heighten their alerts and beginning watching for a more serious eruption.
Remember, when those quakes first started last week, they said there could be a "small to moderate" eruption and there was one -- steam and some ash. However, they've been recording other activity since then and the volcano hasn't settled down.
I'm hoping nothing serious happens. Interesting to watch -- like a Cat 5 fish -- but no devastation of life or property.
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