Tropical Thoughts Including Gulf and Caribbean

[MWatkins]

Looking at the 0Z model analysis and the synoptic pattern...there are a couple of things to note about the pattern and the Gulf system in 6 to 7 days.

1. The pattern that is forecast to develop does suggest that a very strong surface high will build in over the eastern US yet again by days 3 and 4...and will stay there fore a few days before breaking down. At this time of the year, the pattern would lend itself to having something balance that out with low pressure in the Caribbean. None of the models are picking up on anything at present...and upper level conditions are hostile but forecast to improve in the Caribbean, especially the western Caribbean.

A wave with a bit of a low-level circulation is located about 500 miles east of Barbados today. As ridging builds in this wave could pick up the pace and get into the Caribbean. No models are developing it at present but maybe we get a pattern recognition storm out of it. A long shot to be sure but it should be watched

2. The Gulf system that develops late in the model period in the UKMET does not look very tropical in the NOGAPS, GFS or CMC models...it develops a surface reflection rather abruptly and with the exception of the UKMET model...it develops over land. Hard to see tropical development sprining from nothing to a closed system in the late periods and this solution seems unlikely. Chances are we see subtropical or non-tropical development back there which could result in a rain event...but again we can watch and wait.

MW

[mascpa]

Sounds promising.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thank you for the analysis Mike.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Northern latitude weather patterns have pressed south into the tropics causing a hostile environment. It could lift in a week or so allowing the tropics to rebound - or it could be the end of the season...