Start watching the BOC/GOM

[PurdueWx80]

Tomorrow is the day that most models have been hinting at for the beginning of development in the Bay of Campeche and GOM. The wave that has been inching to the WNW in the Caribbean will finally bleed into this area tomorrow. Storms down there were relatively active today - if we are to see any development out of this we need to be watching for persistent deep convection, during both the day and night. The ridge, as evident in WV images, is very strong over the Gulf right now. Because of this, the possible storm would be held very far to the west and/or south, and would eventually ride around the edge of it towards TX and LA. This could actually be a TX storm if it develops...how's that for no TX storms in October??? I have a feeling the pattern change following the early week cold invasion will signal a fire up in the Tropics.

[AussieMark]

Texas has had October storms.

Hurricane Jerry hit on October 1989.

[southerngale]

You mean there's no cold front scheduled to come down and swoop it (if something develops) away from Texas?

[Matthew5]

Here is a Texas storm!!!
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... et2208.gif

[logybogy]

Texas was really lucky with Brett.

Didn't it hit the most sparsely populated area in the whole state? Nothing but cows...

[Yankeegirl]

The local mets are now talking about it... On their 7 day forecast it says "Watching the Tropics".. and we have a better chance of rain on Thursday and Friday of this week... Bring it on!! We need the rain!!

[Anonymous]

NWS Jax starting to mention it as well as it looks like it could round the entire Northern Gulf... Looks like another fla storm after Tx/La.... GFS moves it from near TX to New Orleans and east from there...
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/gfsanim.html

.LONG TERM...00Z RUN OF THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG EAST COAST PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE THESE MODELS ALL SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN SW GULF
AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO E TX/LA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
CLOUDINESS/RAIN CHANCES FOR US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EXTENDED
COVERS THIS SCENARIO.

[KatDaddy]

Here Come more AFD excerpts. With the BOC showing disturbed weather this morning and the TW approaching that area today; things could actually become rather interesting for TX and LA. Yes TX even though its October. TX can get TS and H if the pattern is just right. Regardless we need rain and very badley along the Upper TX Coast

Lake Charles:

STARTING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...SEVERAL THINGS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TO
GIVE OUR AREA A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT AND POSSIBLE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EVENT. 1) A RATHER LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES TUE...PUSHING A FRONT TO THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
BY TUE NIGHT. 2) A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SFC TROF ALONG THE
MEXICAN AND TX COASTS BY WED. 3) THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE
NE AND THE COASTAL TROF...OR POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW...WITH GIVE MOST OF
THE GULF EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WED...SOLID 20 KNOTS THU...AND
20-25 KNOTS BY FRI...CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET BY
THU AND FRI. 4) THE CONSTANT FETCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THU THROUGH SAT...LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FLOODING EVENT.
BEING THAT WE ARE VERY DRY...THE FIRST DAY WILL BE WELCOME...BUT 2
TO 3 DAYS OF THIS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE RUNOFF BY THE WEEKEND.

New Orleans:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY MIDWEEK. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXIT THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET WEEKEND.

Brownsville:

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIG THE 5H TROFFING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND THE WESTERN GULF
COASTLINE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH A SECOND 5H
TROUGH DIGGIN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. ON SUN WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY. PVA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE TX COASTLINE LATER THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH. THE GFS SPINS UP A COASTAL SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
DIGGING 5H TROFFING AND MOVES THIS FEATURE TO NEAR LA BY SAT.

Corpus Christi:

NOTE: WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE WED AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY WRITE A STATEMENT ON
THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

Houston - Galveston

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ENABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE WED...AND
UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES BY 12Z THU. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THU/THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY. WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SE TX..LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA TOWARD
THE EAST COAST WILL SET UP A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS AS WELL
AS INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WED-FRI.
SHOWERS & TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS & BAYS WED
NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATERS AFTER

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE HAS BROADENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SO THE WAVE
AXIS APPEARS ONLY TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR
UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING A DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM
22N90W21N95W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND OVER MEXICO S
TO NEAR 18N97W.



Discussion 8 AM

The NHC is not too bullish with this area.

[Jagno]

If this one is anything like our hit from Ivan Jr. then we will just consider ourselves blessed twice because we certainly need the rain. Ivan Jr. came ashore south of me and although I was as prepared for the worst we received nothing more than soothing gentle rains on and off for a few hours. Florida, we are despirately trying to keep these things away from you so we'll hold em' up over here for you! No complacency from Ivan Jr. here because we know all too well how fast these things can turn on you and get really ugly.

[Hyperstorm]

The wave has moved faster than I had thought for the past 24 hours. It currently extends from the Bay of Campeche into the E. Pacific showing me that the wave has a long axis.

I see evidence of a persistent convective blob that is just sitting over the Bay of Campeche. There's another one that is situated over the GOT over the E. Pacific. One of these HAS to develop eventually owing to the persistence nature of this wave.

As Sanibel mentioned yesterday, there's no other word that can be placed on this feature: Persistence. The ingredients are now there and something should pop up at anytime.

It only leads to time...

[thetraveler]

I worked in Liberty Texas as a firefighter during Jerry in '89. Even though it was a minimal hurricane it caused some interesting damage and the city was out of power for almost a week.

[PurdueWx80]

Sorry about the no TX faux-pas I made earlier.

I honestly think it won't matter if this storm develops significantly or not. There is obviously a ton of moisture that will be swung around the GOM ridge - and that means one thing for all of you people concerned over the drought in SE Texas: RAIN! If this storm gets caught between the troughs, like we've seen several times this year, just not on top of any US state, then someone (probably TX) is in for a heap of rainfall. The upper low over the SW will only aid in lifting up all of this tropical moisture. Now, time to watch the Gulf.

[LaBreeze]

Local mets said this morning that we're in for about 2-4 inches of rain later in the week. One met said that it could even be more than 4 inches depending if the low tracks on top of us or to our south in the gulf. Anxiously awaiting the rain!!

[vbhoutex]

Our local OCM's are all telling us we will be getting plenty of rain out of this system, but I have yet to see one give any definitive amounts. All are saying it should be a significant rain event. We will see. A lot depends on the timing of the incoming freatures from the West as to where this is eventually lifted to on the GOM coast, IF the BOC feature does develop. Some of the models seem to be taking it East of us in TX and giving more of it to our friends to the East in LA. We sure do need the rain, even though I had a surprise .53" last night at the house. We got the 20% for Houston-built up and died right over our part of town.

[PTrackerLA]

Local mets said this morning that we're in for about 2-4 inches of rain later in the week. One met said that it could even be more than 4 inches depending if the low tracks on top of us or to our south in the gulf. Anxiously awaiting the rain!!

I sure hope they're right! We really need the rain around here...

[Nimbus]

Florida has had enough rain so I hope Texas gets most of whatever develops. It would be real nice if the only concern for Floridians was what SPF to use this weekend.

[dhweather]

We *really* need the rain. COME ON RAIN!!!!!!!

I'll take a TS to get the rain!

[golter]

Florida has had enough rain so I hope Texas gets most of whatever develops. It would be real nice if the only concern for Floridians was what SPF to use this weekend.

Or which ride to go to first in Fantasyland. I will be making annual trek in December to Orlando from Houston. I usually takes me 15 hours, I hope I-10 is passable by then.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure that the deep flare right on the south coast of Mexico isn't our wave emerging from a cross-over to EPAC as Cycloneye mentioned.

I'm reading the BOC activity as a weak curve arm to this EPAC-centered feature. To me, the show was over last night when our wave transited as an ITCZ engrained system...

If BOC planted, it would have to do so as a new feature...