Start watching the BOC/GOM

[dhweather]

Florida has had enough rain so I hope Texas gets most of whatever develops. It would be real nice if the only concern for Floridians was what SPF to use this weekend.

Or which ride to go to first in Fantasyland. I will be making annual trek in December to Orlando from Houston. I usually takes me 15 hours, I hope I-10 is passable by then.

That will be close. 90-120 days is the target to get I-10 fixed completely.

Now I believe the West-bound bridge (much less damage) is to be made 2-lane to get I-10 back open. Then they get the other bridge fixed, and return to normal.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sure that the deep flare right on the south coast of Mexico isn't our wave emerging from a cross-over to EPAC as Cycloneye mentioned.

I'm reading the BOC activity as a weak curve arm to this EPAC-centered feature. To me, the show was over last night when our wave transited as an ITCZ engrained system...

If BOC planted, it would have to do so as a new feature...

What show? The movie hasn't even started.
Nothing is supposed to develop in the BOC until
later this week (if at all) not today or tomorrow.

[bigmike]

Florida has had enough rain so I hope Texas gets most of whatever develops. It would be real nice if the only concern for Floridians was what SPF to use this weekend.

Or which ride to go to first in Fantasyland. I will be making annual trek in December to Orlando from Houston. I usually takes me 15 hours, I hope I-10 is passable by then.

That will be close. 90-120 days is the target to get I-10 fixed completely.

Now I believe the West-bound bridge (much less damage) is to be made 2-lane to get I-10 back open. Then they get the other bridge fixed, and return to normal.

Local scuttlebut from engineers is that 1 bridge will be reopen in 3 days which is good because traffic over hwy 90 bridge is a nightmare from what I hear.

[Sanibel]

I think they were saying some energy was going to move from the SW over Mexico that would spur the GOM event.

In any case, our west Caribbean wave has gone over to EPAC and could even become a storm over there just to show what it had to it...

[vbhoutex]

Can we say buh bye GOM development from this wave?

11:30 TWO:
ABNT20 KNHC 041516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Stormcenter]

Can we say buh bye GOM development from this wave?

11:30 TWO:
ABNT20 KNHC 041516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

I don't that is what the models are looking at down the road
in the BOC for next weekend.

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

The northern part of the system has finally moved inland over Mexico. No development expected now that it is over land. If it had remained over the Gulf/Caribbean waters longer, development would have been imminent due to its persistence nature.

I'll hand in the show over to the E. Pacific...

[LAwxrgal]

That's funny, my local met today mentioned this area of disturbed weather is supposed to move north with a weak UL low and give us showers/thunderstorms later in week.

[Stormcenter]

Update:

The northern part of the system has finally moved inland over Mexico. No development expected now that it is over land. If it had remained over the Gulf/Caribbean waters longer, development would have been imminent due to its persistence nature.

I'll hand in the show over to the E. Pacific...

I think you need to read some of the discussions on this from
the NWS around the Gulf coast.