TCFA issued by JTWC 15E soon?

[senorpepr]

TD 15E???

WTPN22 PHNC 051100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051051ZOCT2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N5 123.0W6 TO 12.8N1
128.3W4 WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 051100Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N6 123.0W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
060600Z2.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.3N6 123.0W6, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061100Z8.//