September QBO: +7.22

[donsutherland1]

The QBO's continuing decline and an absence of temporary increases suggests that things remain on course for a switch to East during the winter (probably January or February).

Over the past four months, the QBO has most closely resembled those of 1969 and 2002. 1969-70's QBO switched to east in February. 2002-03's switched in December:


Year..........June...........July...........Aug...........Sept..........Avg Difference
1969...........9.35..........9.08..........9.78..........9.74..........1.69
2002.........13.26........10.05........10.60..........8.90..........1.27
2004.........11.75..........9.96..........8.82..........7.22

In terms of analogs, the QBO is just one of a number of factors that bring 1969-70 and 2002-03 into the mix of possible winter analogs. Based on the available information and the new QBO figure, while it remains to be seen whether the snowier analogs prevail, a colder than normal winter in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic appears very likely. Furthermore, the latest modeling also supports the idea of such temperatures.

[Anonymous]

Don,

So far it sounds as if the data is supporting a colder than average winter for the MA and NE. Which I agree also.

You base a lot of your prediction on analogs, which makes good sense considering how history tends to repeat itself.

I know your Winter prediction is due out next Friday...and your still comparing analogs for snowfall...but here is my prediction.

MA - Below average temps and below average snowfall (Richmond to Baltimore)

NE - Below average temps and average to above average snowfall (Philly to Boston)

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey Don I was reading on wright weather discussion you said a colder than normal winter was likely for the northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Do you think the midwest and great lake (i.e. Michigan)will likely be colder than normal this winter? Your thoughts? Thanks your weather knowledge is very informative.

[yoda]

Don,

So far it sounds as if the data is supporting a colder than average winter for the MA and NE. Which I agree also.

You base a lot of your prediction on analogs, which makes good sense considering how history tends to repeat itself.

I know your Winter prediction is due out next Friday...and your still comparing analogs for snowfall...but here is my prediction.

MA - Below average temps and below average snowfall (Richmond to Baltimore)

NE - Below average temps and average to above average snowfall (Philly to Boston)

Hehe.... hey there! I will again give you props for last year. You made a gutsy call and you were right.

But this year, my friend, the MA will see ABOVE average snowfall... not much above... but somewhat above...

[Anonymous]

Yoda...

Look forward to our winter weather discussions. I feel very confident we will have our share of cold this season. I would love to see above average snowfall for DC and it's suburbs.

Very interested in Don's take and which analog he will use for this upcoming winter on snowfall for our area.

[donsutherland1]

WEATHERGURU,

The early indications are that the cold will extend to Michigan/Great Lakes region, as well. Barring some significant new data that changes my thinking, that will be my preliminary idea for the Great Lakes region on 10/15. By late November/early December, if necessary, I'll update the preliminary idea.

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

The idea of a colder than normal winter in the East appears in almost all of the prospective analogs that I have been looking at and the latest modeling is also supporting this idea. As far as snowfall is concerned, this is a much more difficult issue this season. There is some fairly significant variation among some of the prospective analogs.