Now this is.....

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:19 am

Now this is what I call "an interesting mess".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:29 am

I'm getting VERY concerned. Looks like convection is increasing in the BOC and the GFS has been very consistant in closing off a low off the south TX. coast. The latest GFS turns it eastward right along the north Gulf Coast and appears to take it generally towards Florida. We don't need or want another TC in this state and if it headed for the Panhandle even as a minimal storm it could cause alot of problems as the clean-up from Ivan is still underway and debris is still everywhere.

N2Storms · #3 Postby **N2Storms** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:48 am

I'm getting VERY concerned. Looks like convection is increasing in the BOC and the GFS has been very consistant in closing off a low off the south TX. coast. The latest GFS turns it eastward right along the north Gulf Coast and appears to take it generally towards Florida. We don't need or want another TC in this state and if it headed for the Panhandle even as a minimal storm it could cause alot of problems as the clean-up from Ivan is still underway and debris is still everywhere.

Yes Dean, I noticed in our AFD it mentions the possibility of cyclonic formation in the SW GOM moving NWD then EWD into our CWA by late weekend. The local mets began mentioning this scenario this morning as well. Definitely will monitor this the next few days to see if anything materializes.

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:49 am

I have to agree with Stormsfury on this one. I do not see a tropical system coming out of this, at least not at this point. There is currently way too much shear to its' North for anything tropical to develop since the tops would be consistently blown away(similar to what happened with Ivan redux). Still looks like a huge slug of moisture coming our way, but I see a lot more energy on the S end of this wave over the EPAC. That is not to say those of us on the GOM coasts don't need to monitor this because we do at this time of the year, but we need some changes(not asking for them!!!!!)for this to become a tropical system imo. This system could develop into hybrid system I guess but it sure appears hostile attm. JMHO and we still need the rain. And hopefully for our N FL friends this system, whatever it may become goes N and NE away from them.

rbaker · #5 Postby **rbaker** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:49 am

and shear down in boc is low right now with all the convection down there. However westerlies are well entriched along the northern gom. So if system does move north it would be forced to move ene or even east. and could be too much shear to get a hurricane, but td or ts possible.

#6 Postby **BreinLa** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:50 am

Don't want this in my gulf!!!!!!!

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:55 am

Could get interesting if it develops

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 9:55 am

Although nothing has developed (yet), theres alot of energy down there that is proving to have a lot of staying power. How many days has it been now?

#9 Postby **sponger** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:02 am

Staying power is right! If anything can hold on long enough, conditions eventually improve! It be be interesting to see the overnight runs tommorow. We are finally beginning to dry out here, although the ground is still sponge like. Even rain is not welcome at this point!

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:11 am

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 051503
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

But the NHC doesn't think that anything will develop in the BOC and I also am with SF about nothing tropical developing.But the good news is that rain will fall in places where it is needed the most.

GalvestonDuck · #11 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:14 am

IMO, nothing tropical either.

But it'd be nice to know which way it's all moving and how long before we get rain!

#12 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:38 am

cycloneye wrote:
Code: Select all
ABNT20 KNHC 051503 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECASTER PASCH

But the NHC doesn't think that anything will develop in the BOC and I also am with SF about nothing tropical developing.But the good news is that rain will fall in places where it is needed the most.

The NHC is not saying nothing tropical will develop there. All
they are saying is that there are "no signs of tropical development". I think some you may be a little premature
in writing this off so soon. We ALL should know things can and normally do change quickly in the tropics in either extreme.

frederic79 · #13 Postby **frederic79** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 11:22 am

I agree, Stormcenter. Also, on the latest visible loops there appears to be a small LLC around 19N and 95W just inland. If so, just a small jog north would bring it over very warm water. That could get VERY interesting. Maybe the GFS is not wacko after all.

~SirCane · #14 Postby **~SirCane** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 11:29 am

Please don't form. Please don't form. Please don't form!!!!

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 11:29 am

A couple of points:

In my view the system is tropical. There's a weak low level center spinning over Mexico around 21.5N-99W.

Because this center is unable to stay over water it is in a compromise of having its moisture bands stay active while the energy center stays over land. Because of this the system has the look of a non-tropical system, but is actually a tropical system being held in check. TPC doesn't deal in this kind of detail so they say "no tropical development at this time."

The system should rise north as a coast hugger bringing these heavy bands northward. If the LLC can drift back over water it should devleop...

#16 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 11:52 am

The Eglin WX folks passed this on earlier today:

We continue to watch an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A front moving down through Texas may merge with this disturbance to help create a hybrid low (a low with some tropical characteristics but more like a winter Gulf storm) south of Galveston by the end of this week. Models indicate if such a low were to form, it might slide eastward along the northern Gulf coast toward the Panhandle over the weekend. This would mean lots of rain Sunday through early next week with windy conditions (25-35 knots) over W-151 building some strong wave action and a small surge along the coastal ranges.

While we really do need the rain, we dont. I mean, there are still a lot of homes with leaking or nonexistent roofs. We've been quite fortunate the last three weeks, weather-wise. Looks like that luck is running out for now.

Sanibel · #17 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 12:17 pm

Still appears to be a slight westward drift to the weak overland center. If this continues it will diminish or re-form from that pulse in the lower BOC...

rdcrds:

You don't see that spin?

tw861 · #18 Postby **tw861** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 12:19 pm

Well, most of the NWS offices along the Gulf are talking about some sort of low pressure development the next few days. Probably some sort of hybrid but who really knows until it happens. One thing is for sure hybrid type storms have been very devastating to parts of Texas in the past so it "bears watching". Is that a problem ?

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 12:35 pm

No long term forecast?? wonder why :roll:

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
130 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 5 2004

Short term (tonight - thu)...once again...current forecast trends look
mostly on the mark. The gradual change of air mass is underway...as
east-northeast flow is beginning to increase. This afternoon/evening should be the
last of the thunderstorms for at least several days as atmosphere
stabilizes with surface high building S...aided by developing northwest flow
aloft.

12z ETA model and GFS runs have backed off on the moisture convergence
this evening near the coast...but will carry scattered precipitation through the
afternoon and maintain isolated along/near the coast through early
evening. East-northeast flow should keep min temperatures more uniform from north to S
tonight...though it should begin to feel a bit drier.

For Wednesday...both ETA model and GFS showing a stripe of higher relative humidity...
especially from afternoon into the evening over the central and S County warning forecast area.
Moisture is generally trapped below 850 mb and atmosphere is a bit
more stable...so will continue to blend in between the model
guidance and continue with 20 percent chances...but have reworded to
isolated (vs. Slight chance) as precipitation should streak across the peninsula
from east to west.

This may continue into Wednesday evening...before deep layer drying
begins to set in. Min temperatures will be a shade lower than tonight...
held up by sustained winds of 5-10 miles per hour. By Thursday...perhaps some high
clouds but subsidence is in full swing and have removed precipitation chances.
A steady east-northeast flow at 15 miles per hour or so along with lowering 850-1000 mb
thickness values will take maximum temperatures down a notch...probably a
degree or two below normal.

Long term (thu night - tue)...

&&

Marine...no change in the trends...as caution conds should begin by
Wednesday evening and continue through Friday at least. May have a brief period
of adzy (20 kt+) perhaps Wednesday night and Thursday morning but will let
later shifts evaluate.

&&

Fire weather...no problems on the relative humidity front as values should remain
above 45 percent...even Thursday as lower dewpoints begin to filter in
from the north. Dispersion is another story. Have backed off a bit on
Wednesday with slightly lower differences between the 20 feet and mixing
height level...but should be up again on Thursday.

N2Storms · #20 Postby **N2Storms** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:23 pm

AFD TLH NWS...

.LONG TERM...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH EFFECTS
FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN AND WHERE WILL IT
DEVELOP...AND WHETHER IT WILL BE SUBTROPICAL OR PURELY BAROCLINIC.
IN ANY EVENT...IF IT DOES TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IT COULD BE A
DECENT RAIN PRODUCER OVER THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.

Now this is.....

Now this is.....

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