Dang !! 12 UTC UKMET jumps on GOM

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

      NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS       

            FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 28.2N  95.1W               

                                                                   

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY         

  --------------     --------     --------        --------         

 12UTC 08.10.2004  28.2N  95.1W     WEAK                           

 00UTC 09.10.2004  28.5N  93.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE     

 12UTC 09.10.2004  28.8N  92.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE     

 00UTC 10.10.2004  29.5N  90.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE     

 12UTC 10.10.2004  30.4N  89.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY   

 00UTC 11.10.2004  30.6N  88.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE     

 12UTC 11.10.2004  30.0N  86.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

However this is only one model.Let's look at the other globals to see if a consensus builds in comming days.Also the question is if and is a big if this develop into something would it be hybrid or pure tropical.Also it will be a weak system meaning a TD or a weak TS but again there are big ifs about this because of the shear in the NGOM.

[Stormcenter]

This excerpt is from this afternoon's HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER discussion:
It should make for an interesting end to the week.

FINALLY STILL EXPECT A DECENT SURFACE LOW/WAVE TO MOVE
UP OUT OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND BE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UNCERTAINTY AFTER
DAY 5 DEALS WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE
WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST... THE SPREAD AND FUTURE LOCATION OF EACH
FEATURE IS RATHER GREAT. HPC DECIDED TO KEEP THE EARLIER THOUGHT
PROCESS FROM THIS MORNING INTACT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FINAL MEDIUM RANGE GRAPHICS.

[Guest]

Another Fl. hit.?

[Steve]

Actually the CMC 12Z is on-board as well.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Seems like both of these models like development just off the coast of the Golden Triangle area. Joe B. likes a track skirting the coasts all the way until stopping somewhere around 30N/87.5W while "it" awaits marching orders from a change in the pattern. He believes there will be TS conditions to the north and east of the system, though has no idea if it will get named or not. He believes the bulk of the weather will be on the N & E sides of the system (late season Gulf hybrid).

He also referenced similar patterns yesterday with Frances 1998 and Juan 1985. Frances was a storm that formed a couple hundred miles off the coast of Brownsville and innundated the City of New Orleans with insane flooding. We got caught under some feeder moisture and had a riddiculous 6" downpour (follwed by a couple more inches thereafter). A week or two later when Georges showed up on the scene, people were taking things very seriously here.

Juan is well known for being persistent and not wanting to go anywhere in a hurry (very weak steering currents very far to the north). He sat in the Gulf and spun, moving back and forth. I'll never forget all the coffins that popped out of the land and were seen floating down streets and bayous as the saturated ground forced its contents out. Juan was a very weird storm. The thing about him was that once he was out of here, Fall came in on his backside. I'm not sure that's what is going to happen with this, but if it sits or meanders around the Gulf for a while, it is certainly plausible.

Steve