5:30 TWO - Potential Development

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Aquawind
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#21 Postby Aquawind » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:33 pm

Looking at the Water Vapor Loop.. There is a massive Low over the Rockies and the SW has plenty of energy still rotating around to mix things up..and some moving through to the north of the system on the GFS in 48hrs

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv



The 18Z GFS is just coming out and it definatley has a low in the North Gulf at 48hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

72hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

And still Day 5..Notice the precip is on the east side of the system..sheared from any center and difficulty strengthening sounds about right..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

The High to the north looks pretty strong but then weakens and moves SE maybe slowing the system down even more..possibly opening the door for organization late down the road..
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#22 Postby ~SirCane » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:41 pm

Please no Opal! Folks in Pensacola would just flat out die!!
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#23 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:42 pm

Well, it BEARS WATCHING... :)
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#24 Postby Ixolib » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:43 pm

yoda wrote:Well, it BEARS WATCHING... :)


YOU ought to be ashamed of yourself for that one!!! :lol:
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#25 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:44 pm

Ixolib wrote:
yoda wrote:Well, it BEARS WATCHING... :)


YOU ought to be ashamed of yourself for that one!!! :lol:


LOL!!! I know, but I had to do it... :P
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#26 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:54 pm

Another BEAR WATCH in effect ...

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#27 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:54 pm

LOL! Not again :roll:
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#28 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:55 pm

SF... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#29 Postby Aquawind » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:04 pm

Yep..GFS looks more interesting when it gets in the ATL..

144hrs..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

168hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

192hrs..getting out there I know..lol

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

Getting up ther in BEAR land..
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#30 Postby feederband » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:08 pm

rainstorm wrote:looks very similar to the opal set-up of 1995
:eek: :eek: :eek: Lets not bring up Opal at this time.. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#31 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:10 pm

feederband wrote:
rainstorm wrote:looks very similar to the opal set-up of 1995
:eek: :eek: :eek: Lets not bring up Opal at this time.. :eek: :eek: :eek:


Its not even close to Opal... see SF's earlier post in this thread about that...
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#32 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:24 pm

There just isn't much potential for another Opal with this storm unless the shear vanished. But, there is potential for a strong TS or possibly even a Earl of 98 type hurricane if it gets itself together quickly down in the BOC and slowly crawls northward. Earl moved NNE and then turned more ENE south of LA and eventually made landfall just east of Panama City, FL. with 100 mph winds but was lopsided as the shear from the west affected it.
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#33 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:41 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:There just isn't much potential for another Opal with this storm unless the shear vanished. But, there is potential for a strong TS or possibly even a Earl of 98 type hurricane if it gets itself together quickly down in the BOC and slowly crawls northward. Earl moved NNE and then turned more ENE south of LA and eventually made landfall just east of Panama City, FL. with 100 mph winds but was lopsided as the shear from the west affected it.


Earl's situation was most unique ... Earl was steered on the northern end of an anticyclone deep in the Caribbean, with a trough in the Eastern US and Earl was tagging along the SW edge of that trough through a weakness between the subtropical ridge off of Florida and another ridge in the SW ... shear profiles showed a lot of divergent shear across the system, in which why Earl never took on a classical hurricane look to it ... in the NHC/TPC, no SFC observations of sustained hurricane force winds occurred on land in which in itself is noteworthy. Earl itself produced a LOT of lightning, much more than the average TC within the strongest eastern quadrant convection ... but the shear isn't nowhere near as strong as it is with the current system we're watching in the BOC right now ...

Absolute Vorticity Scale Map - increments of .5

Earl quickly found the weakness on its inception ...
September 1st, 1998 0z - 500 heights

and quickly was merging with the E Central US trough digging ...
September 2nd, 1998 0z - 500 heights

and becoming extratropical in phasing with the digging energy around the base of the Hudson Bay Vortex on the 3rd ...
September 3rd, 1998 oz - 500mb heights
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