BOC system has ONE shot right now ...

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Stormsfury
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BOC system has ONE shot right now ...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:18 pm

s/w ridging is TRYING to establish over the system as the first s/w exits northward across the Central Plains, but already a 2nd s/w is digging down into the 4 Corners translating slowly east ...

This system with the development of a 1010mb low ... partly in response to the large MCV that developed earlier today, along with diffluent shear (SE winds SFC, SW and W winds aloft) ... had this been over land or over the Plains states, yikes ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:22 pm

Your correct if this system wants to develop it will have to do so now as if it waits another 24-36 hours, it may be to late.
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#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:23 pm

It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:24 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:29 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


Yes, it could ... RELATIVE shear would be reduced, however, looking at some of the latest upper air progs, 50-60 kts of WSW shear at 200mb, plus 30 kts of SW shear at the 500mb level in the 48-72 hour timeframe looks UGLY for further development except strengthening a frontal lobe (strongly) ... of course, a hybrid system lessens the shearing effects a bit ... what a chaotic mess this is ...

SF
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#6 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:43 pm

Here's a shear map for next few days
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:44 pm

Looks like the shear might improve in the north central gulf in the next 24-36 hours before going downhill again.
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#8 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:48 pm

And water temps are 82-85 in west Gulf but drop to upper 70s in northeast Gulf. Basically if the system passes east of SE Louisiana the water temps cool below 80.
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:51 pm

If that center doesn't restrengthen it will not form fast enough to outlast the shear. It could even be blown down...
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#10 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:04 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.



ENE or NE, I don't think so.
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#11 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It could certainly lessen the effect of the shear if it moves off to the NE or ENE with a 15kt. forward speed.


I think that's what it will do, though maybe not quite that fast.



ENE or NE, I don't think so.


Im thinking its coming your direction stormcenter!!
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