NHC does not see any circulation at BOC

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
Stationary front is along the northern Gulf of Mexico from
central Florida to S Texas along 28n81w 29n90w 27n97w 30n103w.
Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Texas from
26n-29n between 91w-96w.  A surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche from 23n96w to 16n93w.  Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 20n-23n between 91w-96w.  In the upper
levels...a large anticyclonic circulation is centered near the
Yucatan Peninsula at 19n88w.  Anticyclonic flow is from 12n-32n
between 76w-100w.  Westerly flow with slight anticyclonic
turning and considerable moisture dominates the entire Gulf of
Mexico.

The above from the 2:05 Discussion:

When I look at the loops at that area I see some turning in the low clouds but the NHC still has not analized any low there maybe later this evening they will finnally talk about a weak low there.

[SwampDawg]

yeah...looks like something is starting to twist down there. I'm not to good at noticing things, but I noticed that.

[rbaker]

the extended medium range models depict a weak low to form and move ne out of that area. Convection has fired up, but really haven't seen any pressure falls---yet.

[cycloneye]

No big pressure falls in the area.Only the usual pressure falls in the afternoon hours at bouys but nothing out of the ordinary so far.

[Aquawind]

Well they may go from:

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

to something more like slow development is possible..maybe

Right now it looks just like expected a pretty good slug of moisture..

[alicia-w]

How did it go from "no signs of organization" to an investigation? someone at NHC playing it safe again? nothing wrong with being a little conservative at this point, i guess. no harm done.