Low could be closing off........
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html
West Wind in Tampico now.........
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Dean4Storms
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West Wind in Tampico now.........
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PurdueWx80
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Dean4Storms
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Thanks for that Purdue, sure looks like we got a closed low forming to me. Noted that Tampico went from a more NE wind as of last night to a more westerly wind today, that along with the buoy and Yucatan reports indicates a broad closed low.
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dixiebreeze
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Dean4Storms
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vbhoutex
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Dean4Storms wrote:Actually could have a TS by 5:00pm!
My guess would be that they will call it by then, basically to be on the safe side. With winds above TS strength in many of the squalls associated with this system, it would be logical to do that just to be sure no one is caught off guard when one of those heavy squalls comes through as whatever this actually becomes moves N and/or NE.
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We have pretty good steady winds moving through here on their way out towards the system. That connotes at least a partial hybrid formation.
That scatterometer combined with satellite loops shows the tropical center hasn't congealed yet and is elongated. The turning end on the NW side over by 22N-96.5W should grab the center as it organizes.
This morning the wave has jacked into more of a N-S orientation. I'm looking at west CONUS WV imagery and not finding any well-defined fronts. There's a long border from Mexico to the Canada border along with what looks like a shortwave trough over NW Texas. I could be wrong on this visible map reading. So, I don't see any strong kicker moving in. This should have the result of cooking the storm longer over BOC and moving it slowly north. This 96.5W position is a coast hugger for now.
I can only speculate that slow enough movement could allow the shear to relax before it moves north, but that depends on the synoptics...
That scatterometer combined with satellite loops shows the tropical center hasn't congealed yet and is elongated. The turning end on the NW side over by 22N-96.5W should grab the center as it organizes.
This morning the wave has jacked into more of a N-S orientation. I'm looking at west CONUS WV imagery and not finding any well-defined fronts. There's a long border from Mexico to the Canada border along with what looks like a shortwave trough over NW Texas. I could be wrong on this visible map reading. So, I don't see any strong kicker moving in. This should have the result of cooking the storm longer over BOC and moving it slowly north. This 96.5W position is a coast hugger for now.
I can only speculate that slow enough movement could allow the shear to relax before it moves north, but that depends on the synoptics...
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Stratosphere747
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Sorry, I honestly haven't studied the CONUS movement enough to speculate on track. Just from eyeing WV imagery alone I would say there's no strong front moving in to take it NE...
The center is not down by the round flare from yesterday over the very southern Bay Of Campeche, but is instead over nearer to the coast and NW. This is where the center will form if it grabs tropically. This center is synoptically sheared from the west and should keep intensity down for now. Could be a classic shore-hugging tropical storm if all goes right. All depends on how much the shear allows the center to cook those SST's into dense tops...
The center is not down by the round flare from yesterday over the very southern Bay Of Campeche, but is instead over nearer to the coast and NW. This is where the center will form if it grabs tropically. This center is synoptically sheared from the west and should keep intensity down for now. Could be a classic shore-hugging tropical storm if all goes right. All depends on how much the shear allows the center to cook those SST's into dense tops...
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