12 UTC UKMET develops a sub or tropical storm north of PR

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 

      NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS       

            FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 27.2N  66.9W               

                                                                   

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY         

  --------------     --------     --------        --------         

 00UTC 10.10.2004  27.2N  66.9W     WEAK                           

 12UTC 10.10.2004  27.9N  65.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 

 00UTC 11.10.2004  31.9N  64.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY   

 12UTC 11.10.2004  35.8N  62.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE     

 00UTC 12.10.2004  40.7N  58.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY   

 12UTC 12.10.2004  44.1N  59.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY   

 00UTC 13.10.2004  44.0N  60.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2004  43.6N  59.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE   

But at this run this global model didn't show anything for 95L.

[Hurricanehink]

Subtropical is always fine, especially if it doesn't harm anyone. Interesting it doesn't pick up the Gulf disturbance.

[yoda]

So is that why on the maps someone posted earlier the UKMET is way east?

[WeatherEmperor]

Is that even possible considering the high amounts of shear present?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

The important thing is that whatever develops if it does at all will be a fish system .

[Sanibel]

That wave has also taken a N-S elongated, messy look. If it hits favorability is unknown to me. The shear pattern off that sub-jet looks prohibitive and dominating...

[yoda]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

But why does the upper level wind shear differ so much?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[x-y-no]

This will bring some rough weather to the Canadian Maritimes ...