Baroclinic not tropical?

[Cookiely]

Doesn't sound like it will develop much according to this discussion from New Orleans.
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080948 CCB
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

CORRECTED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HANCOCK CO AT BOTTOM.

.DISCUSSION...NICE CANOPY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK CIRCULATION
AS WELL UNDER THE SW CORNER OF THE CANOPY. THE SYSTEM IS GETTING
SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF SW WINDS CAUSING THE CANOPY TO SHEAR TO THE
NE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THESE SHEAR VALUES
THROUGH TIME AS WELL...THAT IS IF THE CANOPIES DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT
DOESN'T WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE AT AN ABNORNALLY
HIGH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUT
TO 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE WITH PLACEMENT MOSTLY. TIMING IS STILL
WITHIN TOLERANCE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...SOME DRY AIR IS TAKEN
AROUND TO THE SW SIDE AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT MORE WITH
HEIGHT. THIS SIMPLY IMPLIES THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC AND
TAKE THE FORM OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT INSTEAD OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCK HORNS WITH IT
FROM THE EAST COAST CAUSING THE THING TO SLOW UP STARTING SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. THE GOOD PART IS THE DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA EVEN THOUGH THE LOW ITSELF MAY
BE NEAR US...LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't sound like it will develop much according to this discussion from New Orleans.
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080948 CCB
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

CORRECTED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HANCOCK CO AT BOTTOM.

.DISCUSSION...NICE CANOPY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK CIRCULATION
AS WELL UNDER THE SW CORNER OF THE CANOPY. THE SYSTEM IS GETTING
SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF SW WINDS CAUSING THE CANOPY TO SHEAR TO THE
NE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THESE SHEAR VALUES
THROUGH TIME AS WELL...THAT IS IF THE CANOPIES DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT
DOESN'T WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE AT AN ABNORNALLY
HIGH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUT
TO 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE WITH PLACEMENT MOSTLY. TIMING IS STILL
WITHIN TOLERANCE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...SOME DRY AIR IS TAKEN
AROUND TO THE SW SIDE AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT MORE WITH
HEIGHT. THIS SIMPLY IMPLIES THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC AND
TAKE THE FORM OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT INSTEAD OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCK HORNS WITH IT
FROM THE EAST COAST CAUSING THE THING TO SLOW UP STARTING SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. THE GOOD PART IS THE DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA EVEN THOUGH THE LOW ITSELF MAY
BE NEAR US...LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

Hmmmm I don't know about that.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[jlauderdal]

Doesn't sound like it will develop much according to this discussion from New Orleans.
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080948 CCB
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

CORRECTED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HANCOCK CO AT BOTTOM.

.DISCUSSION...NICE CANOPY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK CIRCULATION
AS WELL UNDER THE SW CORNER OF THE CANOPY. THE SYSTEM IS GETTING
SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF SW WINDS CAUSING THE CANOPY TO SHEAR TO THE
NE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THESE SHEAR VALUES
THROUGH TIME AS WELL...THAT IS IF THE CANOPIES DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT
DOESN'T WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS ONE. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE AT AN ABNORNALLY
HIGH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUT
TO 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE WITH PLACEMENT MOSTLY. TIMING IS STILL
WITHIN TOLERANCE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...SOME DRY AIR IS TAKEN
AROUND TO THE SW SIDE AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT MORE WITH
HEIGHT. THIS SIMPLY IMPLIES THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC AND
TAKE THE FORM OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT INSTEAD OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCK HORNS WITH IT
FROM THE EAST COAST CAUSING THE THING TO SLOW UP STARTING SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. THE GOOD PART IS THE DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA EVEN THOUGH THE LOW ITSELF MAY
BE NEAR US...LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

Hmmmm I don't know about that.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

fortunately your area is out of the woods...you guys have had it easy

[Stormcenter]

Yes we've (Texas) been lucky this year.

[hurricanemike]

Looking at sat this AM, it looks barotropic and not baroclinic....wtf are they smokin

[southerngale]

fortunately your area is out of the woods...you guys have had it easy

You mean Houston or all of Southeast Texas/Sw La.?
I thought it was supposed to move north. Is something going to send it northeast?

[caneman]

fortunately your area is out of the woods...you guys have had it easy

You mean Houston or all of Southeast Texas/Sw La.?
I thought it was supposed to move north. Is something going to send it northeast?

Looking at WV loops it sure looks like NE is the only way it can go. Louisiana not out of the woods but if the front keeps progressing it looks like a Penscaola at Miss. problem to me.

[southerngale]

Ok, since it's not an actual system, I don't have the convenience of looking at other people's model maps so I was just going by what the local NWS in Lake Charles (they cover my area in SE Tx.) and the NWS from New Orleans posted above and they both said it was supposed to move north today. I've looked at water vapor loops and couldn't see anything obvious to send it one way or the other, although I'm still in the early stages of learning how to read these things.

[caneman]

Ok, since it's not an actual system, I don't have the convenience of looking at other people's model maps so I was just going by what the local NWS in Lake Charles (they cover my area in SE Tx.) and the NWS from New Orleans posted above and they both said it was supposed to move north today. I've looked at water vapor loops and couldn't see anything obvious to send it one way or the other, although I'm still in the early stages of learning how to read these things.

Think it is suppose to stall tomorrow and then head NE

[Derek Ortt]

this does not look at all barotropic on sat, although to be sure, I need to check the temperature distributions to see if we have any thermal wind, the dead giveaway