Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for GOM

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 081400Z OCT 08//
WTNT22 KNGU 081400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.4N9 95.7W1 TO 29.5N6 91.7W7
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2.A 1007MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 24.2N 95.7W AT 081145Z9 HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE POST 12 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THIS SYSTEM EXHIBITING INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, CONVECTION, AND WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.  ALSO,
SEVERAL BUOYS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE REPORTING 30 TO 35 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVEMENT FORECAST IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATAIS 84F (29C)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091800Z8.
//


[Stormcenter]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 081400Z OCT 08//
WTNT22 KNGU 081400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.4N9 95.7W1 TO 29.5N6 91.7W7
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2.A 1007MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 24.2N 95.7W AT 081145Z9 HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE POST 12 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THIS SYSTEM EXHIBITING INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, CONVECTION, AND WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.  ALSO,
SEVERAL BUOYS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE REPORTING 30 TO 35 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVEMENT FORECAST IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATAIS 84F (29C)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091800Z8.
//


Who issues this?

[AmeliaIslandr]

If this heads towards the NE what may we expect in Jacksonville. I'm going away for the weekend and am now pondering if I need to stay to watch over the house, (cats & hedgehogs). Or can I basically expect a good deal of rain

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 212004.gif

Grafic at link above.This alert is from the NHC that NRL gets.

[kevin]

Look for the center to possibly reform under the convection.. that seems to happen a lot with this type of storm.

[HURAKAN]

[hurricanemike]

That is a US Navy product not a NHC product

[Stormcenter]

Look for the center to possibly reform under the convection.. that seems to happen a lot with this type of storm.

Here is your center.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis