Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 8, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico looks a little better organized this morning and a tropical depression may be forming.
TD may be forming per NHC.
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Stormcenter
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TD may be forming per NHC.
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Sean in New Orleans
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CaneCurious
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We've seen people talking about another Andrew and another Opal so much that when something sets up with the potential sometimes we don't see it right away.
By visual observation alone this center has gone from weak, scattered, badly-sheared dry convection yesterday to a solid block CDO today. You can see a division between the trough disturbance and the self-generated CDO burst down in the main convection area. This is bad for a forming tropical system. There's a thin line in between two of the main CDO globs. That will disappear because this system is forming an obviously separate indentity as the trough convection pulls away over the CONUS.
My observation is based mainly on rate of formation vs forward progress. If you extrapolate this rate of development into a slow track across the Gulf GFDL looks very reasonable. I'm not calling for an Opal - but this has advanced much more since yesterday's "a weak TS at best" scenario many were calling for...
By visual observation alone this center has gone from weak, scattered, badly-sheared dry convection yesterday to a solid block CDO today. You can see a division between the trough disturbance and the self-generated CDO burst down in the main convection area. This is bad for a forming tropical system. There's a thin line in between two of the main CDO globs. That will disappear because this system is forming an obviously separate indentity as the trough convection pulls away over the CONUS.
My observation is based mainly on rate of formation vs forward progress. If you extrapolate this rate of development into a slow track across the Gulf GFDL looks very reasonable. I'm not calling for an Opal - but this has advanced much more since yesterday's "a weak TS at best" scenario many were calling for...
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