NHC has spoken (2:05pm EDTdiscussion)

[Stormcenter]

Read below.

Special feature...
A 1006 mb low is centered about 185 nm se of Brownsville Texas
near 2424n95w at 08/1500 UTC. A surface trough extends NE from
the low to E Texas near 31n94w. Another trough extends S to the
Bay of Campeche near 17n93w. Tropical cyclone development is
possible over the next 24 hours. A reconnaissance aircraft will
investigate this afternoon. Even if the system does not develop
into a tropical system...it will continue to bring heavy rain
and thunderstorms to E Texas...Louisiana...and Mississippi
today. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 22n-30n
between 88w-95w...and from 18n-21n between 92w-94w.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not much new information. If it doesnt form in the next 24 hours then maybe we should just worry about it being a rain event more then anything else.

<RICKY>

[HollynLA]

I thought recon was already in this "system"? Also, LA is already getting hammered with blinding rain (on and off) especially in Terrebone parish. Last year, measly TS Bill brought devestating floods to the area, 4-5' of water in homes. We take this VERY seriously.

[Sanibel]

They are slowly recognizing this on the same pace as yesterday and just as far behind.

I mean it is simple enough. A 1006 millibar Low associated with that kind of center burst is more than just a trough feature. At least they recognized the 24N-94.7 fix.

I agree the system looks worse than ever right now in more of a diagonal entrainment with the trough border. However, I suggest this is occurring because the system is beginning to draw not from the baroclinic north windfield but from the tropical south beneath. If this is correct the storm will become tropical and leave all doubts behind.

Keep watching and watch NHC adjust. Notice they hedge on movement by calling it a trough Low...

The clincher is the surface flow to the east in the Gulf visible on visible satellite. It is jacking up into more of a curved flow. It is doing this because the storm is deepening...

[TampaFl]

Agree Sanibel. I noticed the same about the winds in the East Gulf. I think by this afternoon we may have TS Matthew. Also appears system is moving more ene than ne. This could increase the threat to West Central / Sw Florida. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Sanibel]

Anybody else notice the conflict between assigning a 1.5 T number to our surface spiral and NHC calling it a trough Low?

[dixiebreeze]

Anybody else notice the conflict between assigning a 1.5 T number to our surface spiral and NHC calling it a trough Low?

Yes, I wondered about that -- seemed odd.

[yoda]

Anybody else notice the conflict between assigning a 1.5 T number to our surface spiral and NHC calling it a trough Low?

Yes, I wondered about that -- seemed odd.

08/1145 UTC 24.2N 95.7W T1.5/1.5 90
08/0600 UTC 24.1N 96.1W T1.5/1.5 90
07/2345 UTC 22.8N 96.2W T1.0/1.0 90
07/1815 UTC 22.1N 95.9W T1.0/1.0 90


That's the T numbers...