Vortex Message= 41kts east quad 1004 mbs

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cycloneye
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Vortex Message= 41kts east quad 1004 mbs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:58 pm

Code: Select all

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
URNT12 KNHC 081919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/1919Z
B. 24 DEG 21 MIN N
94 DEG 04 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 105 DEG 015 NM
F. 130 DEG 038 KT
G. 145 DEG 026 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 24 C/ 260 M
J. 26 C/ 295 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/01
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 02DDA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 41 KT E QUAD 1900Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
MAX FL TEMP 27 DEG C 160/32 NM FROM FL CENTER.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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caneman

#2 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:58 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS
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#3 Postby HollynLA » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:00 pm

If it's sustained winds, it would be TS force rather than TD. What in the world is............... Ahhhh, nevermind!
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#4 Postby tronbunny » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:00 pm

Hey Luis,
that report shows that the pressure is EXTRAP.
could you please discuss that for us "braindead-due-to-lull".
TIA
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#5 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:00 pm

caneman wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS


Flight level.
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#6 Postby yoda » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:01 pm

I believe it means that it was not accurately measured from the plane, but from other means.. but I think I am wrong...
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#7 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:03 pm

The pressure has been estimated from the met on plane. Probably cause they couldn't get a drosponde in the center yet.
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#8 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:04 pm

Brent wrote:
caneman wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS


Flight level.


Yeah, that I know but go x .90 is 36.9kts at surface and then 36.9kts x 1.12 to convert to mph is 41 mph. Correct?
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#9 Postby yoda » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:05 pm

caneman wrote:
Brent wrote:
caneman wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS


Flight level.


Yeah, that I know but go x .90 is 36.9kts at surface and then 36.9kts x 1.12 to convert to mph is 41 mph. Correct?


Not to be nitpicking... sorry if I am... but its 1.15.
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#10 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:06 pm

yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:
Brent wrote:
caneman wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS


Flight level.


Yeah, that I know but go x .90 is 36.9kts at surface and then 36.9kts x 1.12 to convert to mph is 41 mph. Correct?


Not to be nitpicking... sorry if I am... but its 1.15.


OK, you may be right but still TS.
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#11 Postby yoda » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:06 pm

caneman wrote:
yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:
Brent wrote:
caneman wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be a TS


Flight level.


Yeah, that I know but go x .90 is 36.9kts at surface and then 36.9kts x 1.12 to convert to mph is 41 mph. Correct?


Not to be nitpicking... sorry if I am... but its 1.15.


OK, you may be right but still TS.


I think we will see a TD at 5, with 35 mph winds... but its just a feeling... it still could be TS Matthew with winds of 40...
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#12 Postby MWatkins » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:08 pm

1. Recon is estimating that the max surface wind is 35 knots...a 41 knot wind does reduce close to TS strength but it will probably a TD at 5PM.

2. The core is 2 degrees warmer than the surrounding environment (although not exactly lined up..recon reported it to be a little more than 1/2 degree south of the estimated circulation center.

The warm core lends more support for a tropical vs. subtropical storm imho.

MW
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#13 Postby tronbunny » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:08 pm

Thanks yoda.
I think y'all are right.
smells suspiciously like TS, and that would explain why Luis took the reference to TD out of his original topic post.
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#14 Postby sponger » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:21 pm

If it looks walks and acts like a duck, probably a duck! 40 mins and counting!
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#15 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:22 pm

Well I suppose only the NHC 5pm advisory will confirm what is truly happening out there. All this speculation is just giving me a huge headache.

<RICKY>
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#16 Postby Cookiely » Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:33 pm

For newbies like me.
Storm INVEST: Observed By AF #966
Storm #DD in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 41KT (47.2mph 75.9km/h) In E Quadrant At 1900Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 36.9KT (42.4mph 68.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT. MAX FL TEMP 27 DEG C 160/32 NM FROM FL CENTER.
Date/Time of Recon Report: 08 October 2004 15:19:00 (Fri, 8 Oct 2004 19:19:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 21' N 94° 04' W (24.4°N 94.1°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.25miles) From Center At Bearing 105°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 038KT (43.7mph 70.4km/h) From 130°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 026nm (29.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 145°
Minimum pressure: 1004mb (29.65in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
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