Another interesting NHC discussion (10pm)

[Stormcenter]

Another interesting NHC discussion (10pm)
It sounds like they are following the trend
instead of the models on this one.


Tropical Storm Matthew Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2004



an Air Force plane continued to check Matthew and found a minimum
pressure of 1000 mb and flight level winds of 50 knots. Initial
intensity has been increased to 40 knots. However...these winds are
confined to the northeast and southeast of the center. The
convection continues to be asymmetric and the shear is forecast to
increase. This would suggest weakening but because Matthew does not
have complete tropical characteristics...the shear could be less
detrimental. At this time...no change in intensity is indicated
prior to landfall.

The initial motion is uncertain but best estimate is 060 degrees or
east-northeast at 8 knots. The track forecast is even more
uncertain. Matthew is embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead
of a mid-level trough. This pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone between the east-northeast and northeast. However...global
models insist on turning the cyclone more to the northeast and
north-northeast but they may be reflecting the development of
another low over Texas. I am not very confortable to be away from
global models in the official forecast track but I would rather
follow continuity from the previous forecast at this time.

Tropical storm watches and warning may be required for a portion of
the central and eastern Gulf Coast early Saturday.

Forecaster Avila

[WeatherEmperor]

Even more uncertainty arises. The good news is that Matthew is moving fast so we wont have to ponder over this for days and days.

<RICKY>

[feederband]

not fast enough

[Rainband]

[Sanibel]

That pretty much shoots down any GFDL intensity predictions with increasing shear...

[Stormcenter]

That pretty much shoots down any GFDL intensity predictions with increasing shear...

Yep sounds that way.

[rbaker]

9 mph is not exactly fast, in fact it's only 2 mph faster than pokey Frances was when crossing fla.

[GulfBreezer]

I am getting really tired of being in a "cone"! Well, I have already lost the only house I owned, I have nothing left to lose...........