In any case, I believe odds favor the development of a tropical depression and likely a tropical storm, particularly when the system reaches 25.5°N to 26.5°N. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Matthew. At this time, I do not expect this system to become a hurricane.
In terms of its track, there are two clusters of possible tracks based on past storms that developed near where this system is taking shape:
• North or north-northeastward to landfall. A representative storm track would be that of Hurricane #5 (1948):
• Sharp recurvature more to the east prior to landfall. A representative storm track would be that of Tropical Storm Josephine (1996):
[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/JOSEPHINE/track.gif [/img]
Current Synoptic Situation (ECMWF):
Based on the forecast synoptic situation, I favor a track more along the lines of the first set of tracks with landfall possibly occurring either in eastern Cameron Parish or Vermilion Parish.
Tropical Storm Josephine’s synoptic situation was completely different from that of the current situation. At the time Josephine was developing, low pressure was moving through the Deep South and the close proximity of this trough swept Josephine toward Florida.
Tropical Storm Josephine's Synoptic Situation:
In the end, this system will be primarily remembered for its copious rainfall rather than its winds.
