Center Burst

[Sanibel]

Sheared or not we should expect a pressure drop from that deepening and expanding CDO...

[Dean4Storms]

Not only that, but the position estimates from 5:30pm to 10:30 tonight looks more like the NE turn has begun to occur.

[Sanibel]

Center definition has gone strange in the last few frames. I think its still where it was before at a north of due east heading - but I agree it seems to be hinting a curving turn NE and towards the Panhandle...

When I see an expanding CDO combined with quirks in center location it makes me think intensification jerks...

[wxman57]

Sheared or not we should expect a pressure drop from that deepening and expanding CDO...

First of all, that isn't really a "CDO", as "C" stands for Central and it's not over the center of the storm. It's a detached area of convection. The center is hard to see, but it looks like it's off to the west of those squalls. As for the movement, that's even harder to estimate since the center appears to have become more broad and detached. The NHC is guessing where it is, just as we are, so don't take too much stock in any position estimates as an implication of movement until recon gets back in there to confirm where the center really is.

[Dean4Storms]

Sheared or not we should expect a pressure drop from that deepening and expanding CDO...

First of all, that isn't really a "CDO", as "C" stands for Central and it's not over the center of the storm. It's a detached area of convection. The center is hard to see, but it looks like it's off to the west of those squalls. As for the movement, that's even harder to estimate since the center appears to have become more broad and detached. The NHC is guessing where it is, just as we are, so don't take too much stock in any position estimates as an implication of movement until recon gets back in there to confirm where the center really is.

I'm not so sure WXman57, does look to be moving more NEastward and if so, the center might have gone up under the convection canopy. Nonetheless, I'm just going by the officials at the NHC and their estimates, not mine. I would agree that I don't think the deep convection itself has totally wrapped the center, although none of us can be 100% sure ATM.

[Sanibel]

Wxman. I don't know if you were here this morning but the center fix I was calling turned out to be where NHC put it several hours later. I like to think I have a pretty good ability to locate surface spirals on satellite loops. At least today I did anyway.



I'm not sure that the term 'CDO' doesn't apply to tilted systems as well since the center axis is still a direct line to the CDO - only on an angle. I agree the center is exposed. Not a big matter at this point.

I still think it will intensify and the red burst is the sign...

[Sanibel]

KC:

Don't think we'll see much. Van Winkle thought maybe some winds, but not much rain even...

[Sanibel]

They're still claw-trucking vegetation piles. Today I rode past a rather nasty condo interior pile of wreckage. Our street was nice and clean but today they spread dirt and gravel all over it again after a second vegetation sweep. The gypsum wallboard makes a chalky mess. Today I finally pulled our lanai frames out of a drying pond in our yard. They were ripped off the deck and thrown there by Charley 7 weeks ago and finally surfaced as the water level sank.

They are starting to finish off the tree piles. Soon it will be piecemeal construction mess from the rebuilds...

[gratefulnole]

They're still claw-trucking vegetation piles. Today I rode past a rather nasty condo interior pile of wreckage. Our street was nice and clean but today they spread dirt and gravel all over it again after a second vegetation sweep. The gypsum wallboard makes a chalky mess. Today I finally pulled our lanai frames out of a drying pond in our yard. They were ripped off the deck and thrown there by Charley 7 weeks ago and finally surfaced as the water level sank.

They are starting to finish off the tree piles. Soon it will be piecemeal construction mess from the rebuilds...

What about the new pass on North Captiva Island? Do you think is will be permament?

[tallywx]

Satellite eclipse done. Convection seems to have completely fallen apart as wind shear roars. Goodbye.

[gkrangers]

Don't be too quick to kill it.

Disorganized but not dead...tho NHC isn't optimistic.

[Sanibel]

Another burst. Don't know if it means anything at this point. Definitely more than a TD right now...