why this has no chance of becoming symmetric

[Derek Ortt]

a few things.

This has no chance of ever becoming symmetric. QG theory is against that. Staright forward tendency and omega equations show that this will remain asymmetric. Only chance for this to become symmetric is for the cold advection to the west to stop, which is not going to happen.

We may see the center briefly reform under the convection a time or two, since that is where the greatest vertical velocity is. The continuity euation shows that the change in vertical velocity over the change in pressure (height) is equal to the convergence. Where we have convergence, vorticity is higher; thus, a new low center could form. However, the shear will quickyl force the convection to the east, and then the process will have to repeat itself. During these periods of reformations, we could see 5-10KT wind increases though

[Ixolib]

a few things.

This has no chance of ever becoming symmetric. QG theory is against that. Staright forward tendency and omega equations show that this will remain asymmetric. Only chance for this to become symmetric is for the cold advection to the west to stop, which is not going to happen.

We may see the center briefly reform under the convection a time or two, since that is where the greatest vertical velocity is. The continuity euation shows that the change in vertical velocity over the change in pressure (height) is equal to the convergence. Where we have convergence, vorticity is higher; thus, a new low center could form. However, the shear will quickyl force the convection to the east, and then the process will have to repeat itself. During these periods of reformations, we could see 5-10KT wind increases though

Derek - Does that "eastward push" from the shear have any impact on the track in your evening forecast? http://www.nwhhc.com/atl142004forecast.html

[Sanibel]

Edit: No Bonnie here. Should be stronger...

[Derek Ortt]

only reason why I am as east as I am is to allow for a center reformation, which I am expecting to occur tomorrow

[tallywx]

Derek, how similar is this setup to Hurricane Earl of 1998, another hybrid/asymmetric/QG forcing storm?

(My loaded question is...how did Earl become a cat 2 hurricane briefly, and would this have the same possibility based on synoptics, etc.?)

[Derek Ortt]

earl went through about 4 center reformations, if I remember correctly. Each time it reformed, it was able to intensify a little. Then, on its final reformation, it reformed under that massive area of convection where there was strong vertical velocity. Thus, Earl really had no other choice but to spin up. However, sure enough, the shear got to it and it weakened back to a cat 1 just ebfore landfall

[rtd2]

I agree Dereck ..It seems Mathew has a bit of EXTRATROPICAL componet to him? Maybe the sheer will have a slighlty lesser affect on the storm?

[~SirCane]

Earl's highest winds were also away from the center. He was a weird one.

[Derek Ortt]

well...

if we dont see some new convection later this morning, we can forget about a new center reforming, throwing my intensity forecast well off

[cind52]

well...

if we dont see some new convection later this morning, we can forget about a new center reforming, throwing my intensity forecast well off

Hi, New to the forum I live in New Orleans. Will the storm now that it's falling apart bring less chance of rain to us? I know the NHC has it coming on top of us, but it looks real weak. Wishing for a miracle!!!

[Derek Ortt]

this wont fall apart. Baroclinic dynamics simply say "uh uh"

it may become extra-tropical before landfall, but the effects will be the same