5am discussion

[Cookiely]

Tropical Storm Matthew Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 09, 2004


The latest CIMSS wind shear analysis shows 30 to 40 knots of shear
over the storm and the previously impressive CDO feature has been
sheared well to the east of the assumed center location and has
also decreased in size and has warmed considerably. The wind speed
is reduced to 35 knots and this is most generous. I would never
guess that there was a tropical cyclone from looking at the latest
satellite imagery...but I would rather not kill the storm based on
infrared imagery. The strong shear is forecast to continue and...
not surprisingly...I am forecasting that mathew will continue to
weaken.

There was no aircraft reconnaissance this morning. Data buoy 42002
reported a wind of 320/10 at 07z suggesting that the center is
northeast of the buoy. There was a hint of a poorly defined low
cloud center on satellite imagery that supports this. The initial
motion estimate is 040/08. A deep-layer mean low is forecast to
cut off over Texas within 24 hours and this should gradually turn
the storm northward as indicated by most of the global models. The
official track forecast is adjusted to the west of the previous
advisory but is still a little to the east of a consensus of the
models.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/0900z 25.6n 92.9w 35 kt
12hr VT 09/1800z 26.4n 92.0w 30 kt
24hr VT 10/0600z 28.1n 90.5w 30 kt
36hr VT 10/1800z 30.6n 89.4w 25 kt...inland
48hr VT 11/0600z 32.5n 89.0w 20 kt...inland
72hr VT 12/0600z 35.5n 88.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 13/0600z...dissipated


$$