Oct 08 and storms brought to you by the letter M

[senorpepr]

After a short break, Matthew's on board... Up next is Nicole, Otto, Paula.

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on Oct 08 between 1954 and 2003. (Note: storm numbers in parenthesis had been finalled out by NHC prior to Oct 08, numbers in brackets indicate the last storm of that season had ended prior to the aforementioned date.) If applicable, there is a listing of what date the "M" storm developed on. At the end the list is the 50 year average ('54-'03).

Please Note: Number represents the number of storms (excluding subtropical storms) thus far in the season. The start dates of the L-storm are when these systems were tropical depressions.

Active Storms on October 08, followed by the date the M-storm formed.

03 11, (12); Oct 10
02 11, (12); n/a
01 9, 10; Oct 29
00 12; Oct 15
99 (8); n/a
98 12; Oct 22
97 6; n/a
96 10; Nov 13
95 16, 17; Sep 12
94 (5); n/a
93 [8]; n/a
92 (5); n/a
91 (5); n/a
90 11, 12; Oct 09
89 (9); n/a
88 (9); n/a
87 (5); n/a
86 (5); n/a
85 9; n/a
84 (10); n/a
83 [4]; n/a
82 [5]; n/a
81 (9); n/a
80 9; n/a
79 [8]; n/a
78 10; n/a
77 (4); n/a
76 (7); n/a
75 (7); n/a
74 [7]; n/a
73 6; n/a
72 [4]; n/a
71 (10); n/a
70 (7); n/a
69 11; Nov 21
68 (6); n/a
67 7; n/a
66 9; n/a
65 (4); n/a
64 9; n/a
63 6; n/a
62 4; n/a
61 6; n/a
60 [6]; n/a
59 8, 9; n/a
58 10; n/a
57 [6]; n/a
56 (6); n/a
55 (10); n/a
54 8; n/a

====
Average # of TS on Oct 08: 07.90 ('04: above average by 5.10 TSs)
Average Date for M-storm*: Oct 20 ('04: ahead of schedule by 12 days)
(remember that as the data-set becomes smaller, the date will jump around)

* M-storm occurred 16% of the time in the past 50 years.

Note: The following "30-yr averages" encompass the years 2003-1974

TS YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 13 vs 9.97 (+3.03)
HR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 8 vs 5.83 (+2.17)
MHR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 6 vs 2.20 (+3.80)

[senorpepr]

2003 Tropical Storm Mindy (Hit Hispaniola, Bahamas)
2002 None
2001 Hurricane (4) Michelle* (Hit Cuba, Bahamas)
2000 Hurricane (2) Michael (Hit Newfoundland)
1999 None
1998 Super Hurricane (5) Mitch* (Hit Central America, Yucatan, FL)
1997 None
1996 Hurricane (1) Marco (Wrn Caribbean Sea)
1995 Hurricane (3) Marilyn* (Hit Windward Is., PR)
1994 None
1993 None
1992 None
1991 None
1990 Tropical Storm Marco (Hit Cuba, FL, GA, SC)
1989 None
1988 None
1987 None
1986 None
1985 None
1984 None
1983 None
1982 None
1981 None
1980 None
1979 None
1978 None
1977 None
1976 None
1975 None
1974 None
1973 None
1972 None
1971 None
1970 None
1969 Hurricane (1) Martha (Hit Panama)
1968 None
1967 None
1966 None
1965 None
1964 None
1963 None
1962 None
1961 None
1960 None
1959 None
1958 None
1957 None
1956 None
1955 None
1954 None


"M" names in the past...
12% became category one hurricanes
08% became category two hurricanes
06% became category three hurricanes
04% became category four hurricanes
02% became category five hurricanes

(Names with asterisk denotes retired name)

[Josephine96]

Thanks for the extra info guys.. It's always appreciated

[senorpepr]

This makes Matthew the second earliest "M" name in the past half-century.

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. that's some interesting information

[Rainband]

Thanks for the info. It is very interesting

[Hurricanehink]

Great job Mike

[Sanibel]

That means it is possible we've seen the 'M' & 'N' storms form before the favorable burst later in the month...

Dr Gray must be proud...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

senor, I would highly suggest that since in post analysis Martha was storm #18.....that instead, you use:

13 Tropical Storm JENNY OCT 01 1969

[senorpepr]

Dr. Hurricane,

This has been a problem with these stats since I began doing them last season. Since the numbers and the letters don't match up, it can become a bit of a problem, stat-wise.

However, next year, I will adjust the data sets for the post analysis. This will also include naming of subtropical storms.