Analysis on 14L.Matthew (1800Z, 09.10.2004)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S 09.10.2004 [SAT OCT 09 2004]
1800Z [0100 PM CDT]
14L.MATTHEW ANALYSIS

Synopsis:

Overnight, Matthew was sheared significantly, leaving an exposed circulation center in which the National Hurricane Center declared a Tropical Depression at 10 AM CDT. However, since then I have noticed a large development of showers and thunderstorms just to the east and on the NE side of the low-level circulation center. Matthew is still quite clearly here with us and should stay that way through to landfall. Matthew has been moving, in my opinion, in a more easterly direction than NNE. I was analyzing the visible satellite floater and found that it was moving closer to 40-50 degrees.

Movement Prognostication:

I tend to agree with most model guidance and the NHC in that I expect a general turn towards the north, however, not at as much of a steep angle as the NHC is currently forecasting. It looks to me that we will see landfall closer to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, along the western side of the peninsula that juts out into the Gulf of Mexico around Venice, LA or Boothville, LA. Afterwards, a closer track towards the western Mississippi Gulf Coast around Bay St. Louis, MS; Pass Christian, MS; or Gulfport, MS could be expected. It is key to remember that at landfall and points west of landfall will receive little to no rainfall or effects but a few gusts to 20 MPH; HOWEVER, we must realize that strong weather with gusts to 50-60 MPH can easily be expected to the east of the center of circulation.

Strength Prognostication:

This forecast is a bit difficult to make. The maximum wind strength will really depend on the strength of the baroclinic influence. If we remember past storms such as Josephine (1996) or Earl (1998). Both systems, especially Earl, experienced shearing at some point in their lifetime. Josephine regained convection around her center as she approached landfall. My point is, the baroclinic sources can be so strong as to make a storm a category 2 hurricane (Max FL winds with Earl were 102 KT). I'm not saying Matthew will become a category 2 hurricane, but I would like for everyone to realize that just because a system is sheared, doesn't mean it is going to dissipate. Based on the 12Z TAFB Surface Analysis http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/TSA_12Z.gif baroclinic sources are not looking anywhere near the strengths that Earl received. However, along the northeast side of the circulation, I would not rule out maximum wind speeds of 50-60 MPH. As long as Matthew can retain that convection along the east side and not have it sheared to bits again, I see that as a great possibility.

Landfall Projections:

Venice, LA SUN OCT 10 2004 1000 PM CDT, WIND 50 KT
Pass Christian, MS MON OCT 11 2004 0600 AM CDT, WIND 45 KT.

*END

[Sanibel]

The center could be closer to the deep convection burst now. However, the SW side is now practically 3/4 dry...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Agree Sanibel...the key is that as long as Matthew can keep the thunderstorms....whether sheared to just east of the center or not...it should be able to strengthen somewhat.

No doubt...this system will mainly be a rainmaker with occasional gusty squalls.