How far East will.....

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dixiebreeze
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How far East will.....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:39 pm

he go? Speculation anyone? With pressure continuing to drop and winds picking up, we do have a TS rebirth:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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Re: How far East will.....

#2 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:41 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:he go? Speculation anyone? With pressure continuing to drop and winds picking up, we do have a TS rebirth:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg


nope, center exposed to the west, shear increasing....rain maker for sure...
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#3 Postby Ixolib » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:47 pm

Looks like a pretty good easterly flow coming in over FL that, to my untrained eyes, may keep it from going way east. But... as many have mentioned, the convection surely is building.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_SE/anim16ir.html
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#4 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:53 pm

Panhandle at best. This isn't going to be anything worse than a rainy day with some gusty winds.
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#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:07 pm

The pressure has fallen across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida more than it has north of Matthew, across Louisiana.

Four hours ago, the trend was about equal from Louisiana eastward and southeastward.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#6 Postby dhweather » Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:25 pm

I think it might regain TS status. We'll see.
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#7 Postby Aquawind » Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:32 pm

The GFS seems like a Broken Record with this right bias again..It's Got them thinking at TBW.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 091806
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-MON)...MODELS INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ETA/MESOETA/NGM KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE GFS PUSHES IT EAST AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ETA/MESOETA HAVE BEEN DOING RATHER WELL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR
SO AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION...BUT
GFS DOES SEEM TO HANDLE SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE WEST BETTER. IF
GFS IS RIGHT MONDAY WILL BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAMP DAY ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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