2004 Hurricane Season: Major Hurricanes

[donsutherland1]

Building on my earlier post concerning that the 2004 season was likely to be an active one, I will note although I had not anticipated quite the number of major hurricanes this season as had developed. That was my error, and contrary to the reports in some news articles that the number of major storms was not foreseeable, I have to disagree. Had I more closely examined the global data, there was major clue that a much above normal season with regard to major hurricanes lay ahead.

Upon closer examination of the global indices that pointed to an active season, which I had noted toward that end on several occasions, one found among the following for the 2004 season:

• MEI: Likely to be positive but average under +0.600 for the season
• QBO: Below +10 for the season and above -20 for the season
• PDO: > 0

The above profile is one that has featured seasons with above normal major hurricane development.

From 1950-2003 (1950 is the first year when such global indices were regularly reported), there were four seasons that met such criteria: 1958, 1969, 1981, and 1995.

The number of major hurricanes for those seasons was as follows:

1958: 5
1969: 5
1981: 3
1995: 5

Average: 4.50

That average is almost 75% above the 1950-2003 average of 2.6 major hurricanes per season.

Consequently, although I did not expect the large number of major hurricanes for 2004, this error was the result of my own failure to have more closely examined the data for possible indications of a lot of major hurricanes. It was not on account of the idea that predicting above normal major hurricane development is largely unforeseeable.

[dhweather]

Don, I really think you do a great job in your analysis, pre and post storm. Thanks for your input!!

[James]

I second that.

[Anonymous]

My forecast for 2004 was:
FINAL TALLY:
15 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
USA LANDFALLS: 7
USA HURRICANES: 6
USA MAJORS: 2

I knew we would have atleast 2 major US landfalls. Some said I was being crazy... but I was right. Infact, my 2 major hurricane tally was not enough!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the compliments, James and Dhweather. Great job Floydbuster.

[Opal storm]

The only thing I forecasted this year was that Pensacola would get hit by a hurricane,and sure enough they did.I just thought nearly 9 years without a hurricane was too long and that their luck would soon run dry,and boy did it