What is QPF Bomb????

[Cookiely]

Iwould like opinions on the discussion below concerning the models and which is liable to better predict the next few days for Tampa.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 091806
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-MON)...MODELS INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ETA/MESOETA/NGM KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE GFS PUSHES IT EAST AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ETA/MESOETA HAVE BEEN DOING RATHER WELL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR
SO AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION...BUT
GFS DOES SEEM TO HANDLE SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE WEST BETTER. IF
GFS IS RIGHT MONDAY WILL BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAMP DAY ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 10000 FEET WILL ALLOW A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SOME
AS REMNANTS OF MATTHEW MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ON MONDAY...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SCATTERED POPS AT THIS TIME AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
NO MATTER HOW MUCH RAIN DEVELOPS SHOULD AT LEAST BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM MATTHEW
REMNANTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY...THEN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GFS HAS A QPF BOMB OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SO IF THIS CONTINUES IN FUTURE RUNS...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS.
SOME DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS START
OFF NEAR CLIMO AND THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AS REMNANTS OF MATTHEW MOVE TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING TUESDAY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST...
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK TO NEAR SCEC OR
LOW END SCA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE SCEC UP FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 89 73 85 / 05 20 30 50
FMY 70 89 72 85 / 05 20 20 50
GIF 69 89 71 85 / 05 20 20 50
SRQ 70 88 72 85 / 05 20 30 50
BKV 67 89 69 84 / 05 20 40 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...JLC

[mikey mike]

this explains it but i don't undertand it!!http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpfbombs/

[SouthernWx]

It simply means a forecast area or bullseye of heavy rainfall/ precip over a certain area....in this case, heavy rain progged to occur over the Tampa NWS CWA (County Warning Area).

[TampaFl]

[Cookiely]

It simply means a forecast area or bullseye of heavy rainfall/ precip over a certain area....in this case, heavy rain progged to occur over the Tampa NWS CWA (County Warning Area).

Thank you for the info SouthernWX.

[Brent]

:eek:

LOL... a little rain never hurt anybody.

[Cookiely]

:eek:

LOL... a little rain never heard anybody.

I have a little water sitting in the back yard. We don't need anymore for a little while.

[PurdueWx80]

The GFS is notorious for it's QPF bombs...it's called convective scale feedback. Basically, the convection keeps adding heat to the system, allowing it to intensify almost infinitely. Don't take them literally, they usually never verify.

[Stormsfury]

Also known as convective feedback, the GFS, like PurdueWx stated, is notorious for such depictions ... it rightly indicates instability, but wrongly keeps the feature (MCV/MCS) and makes it a separate entity on a larger scale and part of the reason that we see some really screwy runs in the MR/LR along with the already lower resolutions run in the MR/LR, only adds to the flip flopping ...

Such depictions, in other words, the GFS sometimes develops convective feedbacks into storm systems from a microscale circulation simply b/c it's unable to resolve the details on a microscopic level ...

SF

[Cookiely]

Also known as convective feedback, the GFS, like PurdueWx stated, is notorious for such depictions ... it rightly indicates instability, but wrongly keeps the feature (MCV/MCS) and makes it a separate entity on a larger scale and part of the reason that we see some really screwy runs in the MR/LR along with the already lower resolutions run in the MR/LR, only adds to the flip flopping ...

Such depictions, in other words, the GFS sometimes develops convective feedbacks into storm systems from a microscale circulation simply b/c it's unable to resolve the details on a microscopic level ...

SF

Tell me if I'm wrong. Its a glitch in the GFS model which sees something that isn't their? So we may or may not get this deluge of rain??