And you thought last week was cold???

#1 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:03 am

Wow, this may belong in the winter forum, but it still affects much of the US, so here goes.

The models have been almost unanimous in POURING polar air into the heart of the country next week. It looks to happen in several pulses, with each being a bit colder, so there won't be a quick warmup after a day or two of "frigid" weather. There are various ways in which the models dig in this trough, with the GFS showing an upper low feature strong enough to induce snow showers across the Lakes (including here in Indiana), to the GEM and Euro's stance on a deep trough with NW flow from the pole. One thing the models seem to agree on is that the trough will dig in as the remnants of Matthew and/or the baroclinic low over SW Louisiana move NNE towards the TN and OH Valleys. This will happen slowly, then the first pulse will shoot the storm NE, N, then even NNW for a time as it deepens further. With all of the tropical moisture streaming northwards, there will likley be some heavy and widespread rain across some portions of the East. IF Matthew gets his act back together and reforms/moves further east, this would choke off much of the moisture, lessening the chances of this rainy scenario. Regardless, winter-like weather is going to make an early show across much of the country next week. Here are some model plots to look at - we'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to check out the finer scale details. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a strong high very far South towards the end of this, meaning the growing season will be ending at an extremely low latitude (perhaps even in some outlying areas of the Gulf States???) for this time of year.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/gfs_00/gfs_00_panel.gif
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/DTXEta/images/ext50015.gif (Extended Eta)

ohiostorm · #2 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:20 am

BUURRRRR. Winter is going to make an early arrival seems like.

frankthetank · #3 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:03 pm

keep it out of Wisconsin!!!

Anyone know where i can get moonboots? The ones that I wore as a child with bread bags for liners?

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 4:19 pm

BRRRR!!!!!!!! The 12Z Euro has VERY low/cold heights across the central CONUS. If this verifies, there will indeed be a lake effect outbreak by next weekend. Also something to keep in mind is the pattern shown here - there is a big blocking high just of the PacNW coast - and another over the north Atlantic. This could mean that a cold pattern will lock in for quite some time as NW flow brings frigid air down from the pole.

nystate · #5 Postby **nystate** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 5:37 pm

Could there be a LES event off of Lake Ontario because of this?

PTrackerLA · #6 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 6:42 pm

Just wondering what we can expect from this in Louisiana. Current forecasts show low 50's by Thursday/Friday. I Would really like to see some lows in the 40's 8-)

.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:30 pm

PTLA - yeah, I think there is that possibility - it would more likely be next weekend at some point, but upper 40's seem possible.

As far as LES goes, I'm not exactly sure of what the setup will be. There will be VERY cold air moving over the warm lakes, so the instability will be there for convection. Whether or not it falls as snow will depend on near-surface temps, and that will mostly be controlled by diurnal forcing. During the day, it is most likely to be rain and perhaps some graupel, but at night, the boundary layer may cool enough for snow. Still, the ground is warm enough that most of it would melt. Higher elevations will have a higher likelihood of seeing snow showers with the cold upper system(s). The last part of the GFS shows highs near 50 here, but I imagine that will need to be adjusted down to the 40's especially considering cloud cover and such.

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:08 pm

Could be in the 50s for HIGHS in my neck of the woods later this week! :eek:

#9 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:30 pm

Forecast highs for North Texas next thursday thru Saturday mid to low 60's and lows dipping into the upper to mid 40's.....better get the fireplace ready

frankthetank · #10 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:32 pm

It's not looking too great for my sisters wedding next week in Sheybogan, WI (on lake Michigan)...

I'm hearing the S word thrown around for here in WI next weekend, any truth to the rumor?

Gord_on_snow · #11 Postby **Gord_on_snow** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 1:10 pm

Ok, i'm still learning here, only been in the US a month.

As far as centralOhio goes, i'm right in thinking that i will feel a big difference by next weekend. But any wintry precipiation cannot happen here at this time of year? I have a small to no chance of seeing any sleet/snow just yet? Possibly a little at night. But i should start to see some noticeable ground frosts?

Have i got that correct? In the UK during October, there was always a chance that polar air could bring a little wintryness to the shores because of it travelling over the sea and convection happening...but i cant see where anything like that would work here.

It is fun learning new weather patterns though!

NWIASpotter · #12 Postby **NWIASpotter** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 1:56 pm

Highs will definatly only be in the 50's later in the week. There is even a chance we won't get out of the 40's for the highs. Luckily there is no chance of precip here when the temps get down there.

#13 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 4:38 pm

This (UKMET) is the most extreme option I have seen for the upcoming cold spell...and I don't think extreme cuts the cake here. This would spell an outright blizzard over the U.P. of MI, upper L.P. of MI, and northern WI with flurries and squall all the way do IL, IN, OH and PA. This is something similar to what Joe Bastardi has outlined (a scenario similar to what Hazel did 50 years ago) as a deep vortex cuts off over the Lakes States. I don't see this happening, but it freaks me out a bit.

Gord, it is very much possible to see some wintery precip this time of year, although it is quite rare. If I'm not mistaken, you are in Columbus right? Columbus really doesn't ever see big time lake effect snow, but flurries and snow squalls are definitely possible that far south. If the above situation pans out, there would definitely be some snow flying by next weekend, although as I mentioned, I'm not so sure it will. Either way, it won't matter too much because the roads are much too warm to support accumulating snow right now.

Welcome to America!

#14 Postby **pojo** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 7:34 pm

I was looking at the models for next weekend. The ETA along with GFS are both ranging from -4 to -7 at the 850 height. -4 temperature was approx around 53*... this means possibly not reaching out of the 50's for highs. I will have to see what the MESO-ETA is saying for the weekend, but that is too early to tell what mother nature will present the people of the northern plains.

#15 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:29 pm

With cloud cover and rain in the area the temps never got out of the upper 60's today with a light north wind, it sure felt like fall with football on the tv

#16 Postby **pojo** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:00 pm

I saw the models today at my internship and had to do most of the forecasting... The ETA and GFS models both had 850mb temperatures in the negative area... due to the negative low temps, snow showers are possible on Sunday into Monday morning. As of right now, there is a high possibility that Saturday and Sunday's temperature will not clear the 40's. Due to the position fo the low and the close proximitiy of the isobars, Saturday will be EXTREMELY windy, (winds NW 20-30mph) which will keep the temperatures down. ATM mixing will be high over the weekend, thus causing lower temps.

#17 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:56 pm

Well, the trend of a very deep storm in the eastern Lakes continues and the new Euro from this morning has one heck of a storm shaping up. The idea of blizzard conditions I mentioned a few days ago may hold up in northern MI and Ontario. This is INSANE! JB was mentioning the idea of a major windstorm in these locations, with heavy wet snow in a supplementary post this afternoon. Looks like a windy cold day for college football games in the northeastern quarter of the nation for Saturday.

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:22 pm

Well it looks like I'll get my 40's, mid 40's at that!

ACADIA-IBERIA-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-ST MARY-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...
MORGAN CITY...NEW IBERIA...ST MARTINVILLE
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EARLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S.

Too bad it only sticks around for a day or so but you can't expect much more than that down here in mid October.

Guest · #19 Postby **Guest** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 5:55 pm

Do any of the forecast models show flurries in the Northern Virginia area? Would we have a freeze here?

#20 Postby **pojo** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:23 pm

Purdue... I noticed the ECMWF also.... quite a wound up low over Ontario. That will be an interesting weather producer if the strength of the low holds true.

And you thought last week was cold???

And you thought last week was cold???

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