Will the 2004 season have more storms?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 1:59 pm

I say that with a weak el nino in the pacific now only one more system will form but this is nothing scientific so maybe more than the one storm I say will form from now until november 30th.

I can say that how the 2004 season has turned out nothing will surprise me to see 2 or 3 more systems form in the atlantic basin so let's see what happens in the last weeks of the season and see if the season will have more than the 14 named systems it has now.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:01 pm

2 more

bigmike · #3 Postby **bigmike** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:20 pm

Hard to say. If anything does form it would probably be in the Wcarribean but sure looks great as of today.

#4 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:23 pm

I'd say one more October, and a November one. October forming tropically from ITCZ in the Caribbean, and November being Subtropically formed.

Hyperstorm · #5 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:42 pm

Since 1995, all of the seasons (with the exception of the ones with moderate-strong El Nino) have seen AT LEAST 2 tropical storms forming after this date, with the potential of seeing more than 1 hurricane.

If we take into account that a VERY weak, almost non-existant El Nino is present, 2 TS - 1 H sounds reasonable to me...

#6 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:11 pm

One hurricane and two tropical storms.

hurricanefreak1988 · #7 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:51 pm

4 more!!! BELIEVE!!!

#8 Postby **JtSmarts** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:13 pm

1 Ts 1 H

#9 Postby **Buck** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:59 pm

4 more. Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary.

Opal storm · #10 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:03 pm

I say 2 more,and they'll be fish storms

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:56 pm

Bumping to see if there are more votes for this poll.

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 6:23 pm

IMHO, 97L MIGHT be the last chance ...

Ensemble progs don't look very promising for the next couple of weeks, and potential for a massive trough in the Central/Eastern US followed by a swift zonal flow pattern through the next two weeks afterward ... (and split flow)

HOLY CRAP! If the Day 3 ECMWF verifies, whoa, look out SE for a nice squall line/SVR WX with damaging winds the primary threat ..

SF

SouthernWx · #13 Postby **SouthernWx** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:13 pm

I'm voting for two more....but that may be too aggresive in light of current long range model guidance.

Saying that, after the past nine years of hurricanes forming well into November...even major hurricanes, and two named storms occurring last December, nothing will surprise me.

I will be very surprised if another major hurricane impacts the U.S. in 2004....because the latest landfalling major hurricane of record is October 25th (1921).
It appears unlikely anything that intense will approach the U.S. coast during the next two weeks. Of course, in a hurricane season in which many records have already been broken, you never know. In 1985, the Florida Keys came very close to experiencing a major hurricane (Kate) in mid-November....so it could still happen.

PW

cyclonaut · #14 Postby **cyclonaut** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:54 pm

I have a feeling that will be something impressive out there in the last week of Oct or into early Nov...Caribbean or SW Atl..This is just a hunch.

There hasn't been a substantial hurricane in the Caribbean in Oct/Nov since Michelle in 2001.

I just don't expect this historical season to go out without at least 1 more "threat" to someone be it the US or some other location.

We shall see.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:21 pm

Let's get some more votes and opinions about the rest of the season how it will end.

Will the 2004 season have more storms?

Is the 2004 season shut down or there will be more storms?

Will the 2004 season have more storms?

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