Preliminary Winter 2004-05 Forecast

[donsutherland1]

The complete discussion can be found at: http://www.storm2k.org/don.html

[CaptinCrunch]

Don,

I agree with with most of your forecast, but some of it I do not.

1. As for the temp outlook I think the gulf coast states will avg -2 from North Texas to Northern Georgia and -1 along the coast. And the center part of the country having a -3 from N Dakota to Missouri back up to western New York.

2. The gulf coast states have been way above avg for precip since June, North Texas is more than 2" above normal for the month of October and 12.5" above normal for the year as of 10/11. With a weak El Nino and a very active Subtropical Jet Stream I see no change in the current pattern of having avg to above avg precip thru the winter months.

3. Snowcover has exploded across the northern parts of Canada, much of Alaska and northern Asia since early September making snow cover avg. in some parts and above avg. in others thru early October.

I myself don't think we will see the extreme cold as 76-77,but I do think the 2004-05 winter will be colder than that of 2002-03 for the Central and Southern parts of the US and equal that of 02-03 for the Northeast.

[donsutherland1]

CaptinCrunch,

Several quick points:

1) Based on later data concerning the NAO, Northern Hemisphere/North American snowcover, some cities could see changes in their snowfall idea. Largest possible changes might be for DCA and Philly, but also St. Louis.

2) As for the temperatures, I don't believe we're too far apart. We seem to be thinking that the same areas will see below normal readings and my area of coldest readings appears perhaps just a bit to the north of what you're thinking.

3) The precipitation idea was a tough call. Given the September figures, I had added confidence that Winter 2004-05 could feature the kind of ENSO region anomalies that have proved more the exception to the rule with regard to precipitation anomalies in the Gulf States.

As I review later data, this is another area that will definitely be reassessed.

Overall, we'll see what happens.

[CaptinCrunch]

It is hard to get a good Idea of what winter will bring this early, I agree that by Mid November we will have a better hold on what may play out for the 04-05 winter season across the U.S.

I will look forward to it.

All the Best to you!!

[Anonymous]

Don,

Excellent forecast! I must say I agree 100% with the forecast. It appears likely there will be a sharp/dramatic snowfall cutoff in the major cities of the NE southward to the MA. Boston is poised to have a very snowy winter. DC will be snow starved...unless...

1. SJS stays active and tracks south and east of DC.
2. Storm systems form south of Hatteras and track up coast.
3. Cold air stays in place.

As we know one good nor'easter will change predicted snowfall amounts of only 12'' - 17''.

That being said...if you live in DC and want snow...move to Albany, Boston, or Syracuse.

[Guest]

I think we may see more snow. Im thinking about 30 for DC, 35 for Philly, and 40 for NYC. I agree with your cold idea though.

[Anonymous]

nikolai-

30 for DC? Do you know what the seasonal average is for DC?

[yoda]

nikolai-

30 for DC? Do you know what the seasonal average is for DC?

Hehe! The average in DC is anywhere from 18-22"...

[BL03]

Don great discussion on the upcoming winter! It was a great read and you sound confident in your forecast which is a good thing.

I see you have NYC in the 20-30" for the season which is below to normal to me and Bos with 50-60". Are you thinking there will be a sharp cutoff in snow amounts in the NE because the way the storms will track?

[Anonymous]

nikolai-

30 for DC? Do you know what the seasonal average is for DC?

Hehe! The average in DC is anywhere from 18-22"...

Excuse me, the seasonal average for snow in northern Virginia at Woodbridge is about 10 to 14 inches. The farther west and north you go, the snowier it gets!

I am officially expecting two snowfalls this winter in Woodbridge. Each snowfall will be 3 to 5 inches.

This winter in Woodbridge will be no 2002-2003 and it sure will not be like 1995-1996!!

I like snow but unfortunately I live in an extremely bad place for it.

I would like to be pleasantly surprised but I choose to face reality this winter: Woodbridge will be lucky to see two snowfalls, each of which will dump about 3 inches. That's not much to shovel but at least I'll save my poor ailing back lol. I wore myself out shoveling sand at Nags Head. My friends insisted on building a huge sandcastle right in-between the low and high water marks and it was my job to build the seawall. Well I built it real strong but my back's shot. Three inches of snow will be plenty this winter. Albany can have all the snow!

The last day we were at Nags Head, the wind came up, the tides rose 1 foot above normal, and the entire beach got washed by foamy waves, which speedily demolished all my work. That'll teach me to try and do battle with the Atlantic Ocean!!! LOL!!

[Lowpressure]

Jeb- my Northern Virginia winter friend- what is up? 38.8 on the ole patio this morning.

[Anonymous]

Jeb- my Northern Virginia winter friend- what is up? 38.8 on the ole patio this morning.

We hit 38 degrees here this morning too. It's good to see you again!

It'll be interesting to see what Old Man Winter has in store for us this winter, hopefully not the crushing 2003-2004 heartbreak of last winter.

[Lowpressure]

I am hoping for a little better snowfall this year. We were so close last year, especially the late season 20 plus inch job in North Carolina.

[whiteoutwx1796]

Don great discussion on the upcoming winter! It was a great read and you sound confident in your forecast which is a good thing.

I see you have NYC in the 20-30" for the season which is below to normal to me and Bos with 50-60". Are you thinking there will be a sharp cutoff in snow amounts in the NE because the way the storms will track?

done clearly stated that NYC will be wetter then normal for the winter months meaning they will be snowier then normal accum wise:

Wetter than normal: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia

and....................................

Cooler than normal: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin

[Dj3]

hey don, here in pittsburgh we only average about 40 inches of snow a year. Do you really think we will be that much above average? Great forecast and thanks for your help!

[nystate]

Don,

I'm assuming that when you say more precipitation than normal for New York, you are including upstate as well? Also, is there any way to tell how good of a LES winter this will be this far in advance?

I would love another 7 foot dumping on Oswego.

[Guest]

woodbridges avg is 10-14? my avg is about 22-24 (mclean). Dc's avg is 16. Right now, I am thinking they go above average, however not as much as 02-03. One of my highest analogs, 69-70 had DCA get 14 inches while IAD recieved 30.2. Big difference. I think the rain snow line will be a factor this winter in a couple storms, but DC will end up probably 25-35. IAd, probably 30-40. PHL, 30-40, NYC, 35-45.

[wx247]

Great forecast Don!!! Looks like a cool winter here.

[donsutherland1]

BigEyedFish,

There are still some prospects for DCA to Philly and maybe NYC to see more snow than what I outlined. For starters, I had to estimate the September Northern Hemisphere Snowcover, as the data was still not available through last night. Also, if the NAO is generally negative, snowfall prospects could be enhanced.

Of course, where I bust, I hope that more snow rather than less will be the result.

[donsutherland1]

Nikolai,

While I believe there is some opportunity for greater snowfall in the DCA area, 30" or greater winters are not all that common (21 of 116 winters since 1888-89):

Code: Select all

Season   Snowfall
1898-99   54.4
1995-96   46.0
1921-22   42.5
1891-92   41.7
1904-05   41.0
1957-58   40.4
2002-03   40.4
1960-61   40.3
1910-11   39.8
1978-79   37.7
1890-91   37.1
1966-67   37.1
1917-18   36.4
1908-09   36.0
1899-90   35.6
1963-64   33.6
1935-36   31.8
1934-35   31.4
1986-87   31.1
1892-93   31.0
1933-34   30.7


Nevertheless, sometimes such winters come in clusters. For example, 1890-91 through 1892-93 and 1933-34 through 1936-36 saw 3 consecutive winters with 30" or more in Washington, DC. Moreover, the 1890s saw 5 such winters.

The last decade to see more than one was the 1960s (3). The 1940s saw none.